Chidaliro imeneyi. Kodi izo ndi zikhoza kugwiritsidwa ntchito?

Chidaliro imeneyi, anabwera kwa ife ku munda wa ziwerengero. Izi osiyanasiyana, amene akutumikira chaka ndi chizindikiro osadziwika ndi digiri yapamwamba ya kudalirika. Chophweka njira kufotokoza izi ndi chitsanzo.

Yerekezerani kuti mukufuna kufufuza phindu mwachisawawa, mwachitsanzo, seva Poyankha nthawi pempho ndi kasitomala. Nthawi iliyonse mitundu wosuta adilesi yeniyeni, makina kuyankha pa liwiro osiyana. Choncho, mayeso Poyankha nthawi ndi mwachisawawa. Choncho, chidaliro imeneyi kudziwa malire a chizindikiro ichi, ndiyeno kudzakhala kotheka amanena kuti ndi Mwina 95% mlingo zimene Seva adzakhala mu uthunthu masamu ndi ife.

Kapena mukufuna kudziwa mmene anthu ambiri akudziwa chizindikiro malonda a kampani. Pamene imeneyi odzidalira masamu, ndiye kudzakhala kotheka, mwachitsanzo, kunena kuti 95% Mwina chiwerengero cha anthu ogula amene amadziŵa zimenezi mtundu, ndi mu osiyanasiyana kuchokera 27% kuti 34%.

Popeza mawu amenewa ndi umafananirako ndi phindu monga mlingo chidaliro. Ndi kuthekera kuti mwina anakhumba zili m'gulu la imeneyi chidaliro. Kuyambira mtengo uwu zimadalira m'mene chachikulu adzakhala osiyanasiyana lathu. Kwakukulu mtengo amalandira, ndi kuchepera chidaliro imeneyi, ndi mosemphanitsa. Childs iwo anapereka kwa 90%, 95% kapena 99%. Phindu 95% ali otchuka.

Yogwira chigawo nawonso amakhudza kupezeka kwa kuzipenya ndi kukula chitsanzo. tanthauzo zachokera kopanda kuti chikhumbo mu funso umamumvera lamulo yachibadwa kugawa. ndemanga iyi imatchedwanso Chilamulo Gauss a. Malinga ndi iye, izi amatchedwa yogawa wabwinobwino wa yothandizira mwachisawawa variable kuti tinganene kuti ndi Mwina osalimba. Ngati kopanda lafalitsidwa yachibadwa anasonyeza kuti cholakwika, ndiye Chiyerekezo zingakhale zolakwika.

Choyamba, tiyeni kuthana ndi mmene kuwerengera chidaliro imeneyi kwa chiyembekezo. Pali milandu ziwiri. Kupezeka (mlingo wa kuwanditsa wa variable mwachisawawa) chodziwika kapena ayi. Ngati amadziwika, chikhulupiriro imeneyi wathu masamu pogwiritsa ntchito mfundo zotsatirazi:

HSR - T * σ / (sqrt (n)) <= α <= HSR + T * σ / (sqrt (n)), mmene

α - chizindikiro,

T - chizindikiro cha Laplace yogawa tebulo,

sqrt (n) - muzu lalikulu la okwana buku chitsanzo ,

σ - muzu lalikulu la masiyanidwe a.

Ngati masiyanidwe silikudziwika, akhoza kuchita masamu, ngati ife kudziwa mfundo zonse za khalidwe ankafuna. Kuchita izi, ntchito mfundo zotsatirazi:

σ2 = h2sr - (HSR) 2, mmene

h2sr - kufunika pafupifupi ya mabwalo a khalidwe kuphunzira,

(HSR) 2 - lalikulu zikutanthauza mtengo wa khalidwe la.

Chilinganizo chimene Pankhaniyi kuchita masamu chidaliro imeneyi ndi yosiyaniranapo:

HSR - T * s / (sqrt (n)) <= α <= HSR + T * s / (sqrt (n)), mmene

XCP - chitsanzo ndikutanthauza,

α - chizindikiro,

T - chizindikiro kuti chikupezeka mwa Wophunzira yogawa tebulo T = T (ɣ; N-1),

sqrt (n) - muzu lalikulu la kukula chitsanzo,

m - muzu lalikulu la masiyanidwe a.

Taganizirani chitsanzo ichi. Kuganiza kuti zotsatira za 7 miyezo anatsimikiza kufunika pafupifupi mayeso mbali, amene ali wofanana 30 ndi chitsanzo masiyanidwe wofanana 36. Ndipo akapezeka ndi Mwina 99% chidaliro imeneyi muli phindu lenileni la chizindikiro anayeza.

Choyamba tingamasulire kodi t: T = T (0,99; 7-1) = 3.71. Kugwiritsa chilinganizo pamwamba, ife kupeza:

HSR - T * s / (sqrt (n)) <= α <= HSR + T * s / (sqrt (n))

30 - 3.71 36 / (sqrt (7)) <= α <= 30 + 3.71 36 / (sqrt (7))

21,587 <= α <= 38,413

Chidaliro imeneyi kwa kusiyanitsa ndi masamu monga momwe zilili ndi zikutanthauza yodziwika, ndi pamene palibe deta pa chiyembekezo masamu, ndi kokhaku mtengo osakondera masiyanidwe kuyesa mfundo. Ife sudzapereka pano chilinganizo cha mawerengedwe ake, popeza zovuta kwambiri ndipo ngati n'koyenera, iwo nthawi zonse amapezeka pa maukonde.

Tingaonenso yekha kuti chikhulupiriro imeneyi ndi conveniently anatsimikiza ntchito kupambana pulogalamu kapena maukonde utumiki wotchedwa.