Zili mu makampani Russian mafuta chiyani? Zenizeni ndi akuyembekezera

Mafuta mtundu ikupitirira, ndipo amene aliyense wa gulu kanthu pa maziko a zolinga zawo. Wamanyazi pofuna kukwaniritsa zogwirizana kotunga zopinga, anapezerapo mu Doha, analephera, makamaka chifukwa renunciation la Saudi Arabia, nayenso, zomwe zinachitika mu mkhalidwe chiyembekezo. Mtengo wa mafuta pang'onopang'ono kuwonjezeka, potero kudzaza bajeti ya la Russia, kale kukonzekera mavuto aakulu monga mwa Mapa kwambiri bwino. Kodi kuyembekezera lotsatira? Today akuona makampani migodi, amene ali kufunika njira kwa chuma cha dziko? Izi akhoza adzaweruzidwa kokha pa mfundo za akatswiri oyenerera - ambiri deta zifukwa zoonekeratu sanali anafotokoza.

Zimene zikuchitika ku America

US kupanga mafuta makampani mu zotchipa akukumana ndi mavuto aakulu. Kutha kwa mitengo ya dziko zinachititsa kuti kuchepa profitability ndi zotsatirapo zonse za malamulo onse a zachuma. asodzi American okha zasonyeza okha mu msampha, kulenga zoopsa oversupply. Pa mtengo wa $ 46 mbiya pafupifupi ndi "kudula" kuchokera mafuta shale msika boma gawo, luso wayamba opanda pake Komabe, alinso phindu kwa reactivation wanga zimatenga nthawi zosakwana njira zachikhalidwe. kupanga mafuta mu US zinakwana pachimake mu June 2015, pamene mu tsiku matumbo anali anachira miliyoni 9.6. mbiya. Tsopano, chithunzi ichi anagwa miliyoni 8,8. Ndipo akupitiriza kupululuka. makampani lili m'mavuto lalikulu abwezera ngongole anatengedwa zochokera phindu okwezeka amene alibe lero.

Zimene zikuchitika ku OPEC

Cartel akulumikiza mafuta yotulutsa Middle East mayiko, pa siteji pano anasonyeza Mwachangu ake otsika. M'mawu ena, chimene icho chiri, kuti si - palibe kusiyana. Waukulu galimoto mphamvu, bungwe la sitima, Saudi Arabia, khalidwe ngati palibe OPEC kulibe, koma waukulu chopunthwitsa anali malo a Iran kuonjezera zina kupanga. N'zoonekeratu dziko, naterpevshis ku ziletso yaitali, akufuna kukwaniritsa phindu anataya kwa zaka zambiri, kuwonjezera, monga posachedwapa makoti ngakhale ndalama zina ayenera kukhala zimakhudza kwambiri pa msika.

Saudi kukhuthula kwakukulukulu Mzimuyo atengera, kumabwezera mmbuyo kukula kwa mitengo, amene kutali akadali sanakhutire ndi El-Riyadh chimene chili chofunika kuti amagwira anali osachepera mazana, kapena bajeti sangathe yafupika. Chivomerezocho ananena kuonjezera kupanga kwinaku kunathandiza kwambiri ayi. Tehran mu April anabwera pa magalimoto dosanktsionny. Pa lonse anasunga vutoli mokomera maganizo pa dziko msika, koma pang'onopang'ono angaimbidwenso. Kuuza ikukula, ndipo anafika pazipita zaka zisanu, amenenso pansi msika yachibadwa alipo, gwero chachabe chimadyedwa mofulumira kuposa msewu, ndi zochita limagwirira kudziletsa malamulo, ndi mtengo pang'onopang'ono kumawonjezera.

Russian "Greenfield"

Panopa, chifukwa yopanga yogwira mafuta mu United States ndi OPEC Wonjezerani chinawonjezeka ndi. Migolo miliyoni 1,25, koma kumapeto a 2017 vutoli ndi ntchito kuchepa migolo miliyoni 0,14.. Pa nkhani imeneyi, malo Russia ndi chidwi. Malinga VYGON kufunsira akatswiri zoweta mafuta kupanga ikukula mofulumira, ndipo chaka chamawa buku lake lidzafika migolo miliyoni 565. Patsiku womwe ndi mbiri ngakhale mu nthawi Soviet mu 1987. Pakuyenerera m'chaka panopa, chithunzi ndi miliyoni 545 Magwero waukulu kotunga zipangizo anayamba apeze otchedwa greenfields (greenfields), ndiko kuti, minda kumene anatumidwa .. Ichi ndi chifukwa ubwino msonkho operekedwa ndi boma pa siteji koyamba kupanga. Gawo "minda wobiriwira" ndi wachitatu wa chonse pamodzi. Pankhani ya munthu akafika mgwirizano mu Doha, madipoziti awa samakhoza koma achita m'Mphamvu. Monga tsopano kuperekedwa ndi ntchito ziwiri watsopano kukhala kotheka kuonjezera kupanga miliyoni 16.5. Matani mu chaka panopa ndi 17 miliyoni. Matani yotsatira.

The kuchepa kuyenga

chakuti mabuku ena mafuta adzakhala wolowa ndi kutuluka m'dziko, palibe amene amakayikira. Malinga ndi mutu VYGON kufunsira G. Vygon, Unduna wa Development Economic zanyengo kuchepetsa N'kuthekanso okwanira pa dziko msika ndi 2.4% (matani mamiliyoni 236.) Sizolondola mwa mawu kukula kwa ulimi ndi kuchepa kwa mowa zoweta mankhwala a akulimbana. Sales a mafuta a sukulu zosiyanasiyana ndi dizilo anakula zaka 15, koma anagwa pa 2.3% mu 2015. Motero, pali chifukwa choyembekezera kuti si kuchepetsa, ndi kukula kwa wolowa matani 13 miliyoni. Chaka chino, ku maganizo a ndalama kudzaza bajeti bwino. Chifukwa cha ichi ndi zoonekeratu, ku Russia n'kuyamba kuthamangitsa zochepa ndi kugula galimoto (lomwe, ndithudi, ndi zoipa). Mwachitsanzo, mu 2008 anthu amamuonera makina 3 miliyoni, kuposa Germany, monga kale, 2015 m, yekha 1.2 miliyoni. Choncho, mafuta ndi anthu anagula zochepa.

Mmene zinthu zilili pa mtengo wa mafuta mu dziko

Pakuti katundu osati mafuta owonjezera, ndi mankhwala. Mu chaka chino ndipo lotsatira ubongo zina kwa kupanga mafuta kudzachitika ntchito, ndipo zotsala zonse cholinga cha msika yakunja. buku ake kufikira pafupifupi 9,1 mln. matani, umene ndi azimuth zabwino, monga mtengo n'loti apamwamba kwambiri mu nkhani iyi kuposa mu kugulitsa zipangizo. Komabe, kuyembekezera kuchepa mtengo ritelo wa ziziyenda Russian, mwatsoka, si koyenera, ngati lita imodzi ya 92-TH mu 2014 ndalama avareji 31 rubles. 40 kopecks, pamene kotala woyamba wa chaka chino -. 34 rubles. 10 kopecks. Kuti timvetse chifukwa khalidwe la mafuta ayenera kulowa mu maonekedwe a mitengo yake, imene kwambiri bwanji msonkho excise (mu 2015 izo anachepetsedwa), makoti mafuta ndi devaluation (mu 2015 yomweyo "wawonjezera 6 rubles kopecks 80.. Per lita ), chifukwa mafuta chimodzimodzi sizigulitsidwa madola kapena mumauro.

zinthu zina zimakhudza zosasangalatsa

Bwino pakati okwanira ndi kufunika pang'ono ndi pang'ono limagwirizana ndi mafuta mu dziko, ngakhale aku Iran "kuukira" ndi Saudi Kutaya. kumachita zinthu impeding msika supersaturation zosiyana, mwatsoka, nthawi zambiri zosasangalatsa kwambiri ndipo ngakhale zomvetsa chisoni. Mu Iraq, zigawenga yakuwadzudzumisa ndi payipi mafuta, ndiye chinthu chomwecho chinachitika mu Colombia, Kuwait kuponya asodzi ku Canada, kumene nkhalango zinachitika kumeneko, kumene kuli nsomba. Zonsezi kuchepetsa mwayi.

Kodi wina umakhudza muyezo?

Kuuza kuchuluka, kukula anakwana mln 1.4. Migolo patsiku, ndipo buku okwana anafika miliyoni 95,9. Bbl., Ndipo onse kotala woyamba wa chaka chino. Ogula waukulu anali China, India ndi Russia. Chotero mowa inali zosayembekezeka msika. Pa nthawi yomweyo, Saudi Arabia ali sanakwaniritsidwe kuopseza ake, kupanga ake buku tsiku ndi zaka 10, 2 miliyoni. Mbiya. Komanso zinthu ndi ena OPEC, kupatula Iran, kumene. Samvetsa chifukwa mu Doha kotero anapuma. Koma zotsatira lofunika kwambiri la kuchepetsa mtengo - ichi ndi kuchepa kupanga m'mayiko ndalama kupanga n'zambiri, malinga ndi Iea Mapa, adzakhala wokhoza kupereka mbiya 800 okha zikwi .. patsiku.

ziyembekezo

Dipatimenti ya Energy Lipoti pa May 12, malinga ndi zimene mtengo wa mafuta mpaka 2040 akhoza kukula kwa madola 252 pa mbiya. Komabe, analola zochitika zina, malinga zosiyanasiyana, wotchedwa manambala $ 76 (kaonedwe zoipa) kapena $ 141 (avareji-zimathandizadi). Komabe, zimene zidzachitike kotala zaka, n'zovuta kwa woweruza, komanso zimene adzakhala ndi nthawi yeniyeni kugula mphamvu ya ndalama US. Koma yochepa (zaka ziwiri), pali zifukwa chiyembekezo cha mtengo wa madola 70-75 ndi Mwina otsika kukwaniritsa chizindikiro chake 100. The Russian chimbalangondo anthu mitengo, koma mpikisano zosemphana onse adzapulumuka.