Amene amapindula ndi kugwa mitengo mafuta? Katswiri pa zinthu za mitengo mafuta

Ndi chilimwe 2014 pa mtengo dziko msika wa mafuta inagwa catastrophically. Ndi $ 110 iye anali atagwa pafupifupi ndi theka ndipo lero malonda pa $ 56. Mayiko katswiri olimba kudziwika monga bungwe «Bloomberg Chatsopano Energy Finance» Imachitika kusanthula nkhaniyi ndipo anayesera kupeza zomwe dziko anapambana ndipo chimenechi chinathetsa kwa kugwa kwa msika mafuta padziko lonse.

Amene anapambana ndi amene anataya: maganizo zowombetsa mkota

Kusanthula ndi funso la amene amapindula ndi kugwa mitengo mafuta, tiyenera ananena kuti choyamba cha kuchepa lakuthwa mu mtengo "golide wakuda" kugunda-exporting mayiko. A chitsanzo chapadera ndi Russia, amene anapanga zambiri za bajeti ndi chifukwa katundu wa mafuta. Kugwa kwa mtengo wa mafuta kwachititsa sakuyendetsa lakuthwa mu mitengo ya katundu kumabungwe chofala chuma, makamaka mafuta ndi gawo la kuyenga. M'mayiko mafuta yoti alandira mwayi kwa zinthu. Pambuyo mitengo mafuta mu Russia ndi ku dziko agwa kwambiri, Europe, India ndi China anali kugula mafuta pa mtengo amazipanga mpikisano. mabizinesi awo aona latsopano kupulumutsiramo pepala, omwe analola kuti apeze phindu lalikulu. Koma mu US zinthu ziwiri. Ena mwa ntchito zokhudzana ndi chitukuko cha mafuta shale, anatseka, komanso dziko lonse lapansi. Zina Boma la chuma muli nawo mwayi chitukuko mogwirizana ndi kuchepetsa mtengo wa mafuta ndi kuchepetsa ndalama katundu. Ambiri, dziko wapindula zinthu.

Makamaka akhudzidwa chuma chofunika

Monga tanena, mtengo wa mafuta pa msika kwambiri zikupezeka mu dziko ndi mtundu yaiwisi a zachuma. Chovuta kwambiri kugunda boma bajeti umene unakhazikitsidwa pa maziko a mtengo wa mafuta. The limati mafuta yotulutsa mu kufanana zoopsa kugwa mu mitengo anakumana ndi kuwonjezeka mbiya mu ndi kuchepekedwa bajeti. Mu Iran, bajeti moyenera n'zotheka ngati mafuta mtengo wa madola 136 pa mbiya. Mu Venezuela ndi Nigeria, ndi kuchepekedwa sadzakhala pa mtengo wa $ 120. Kwa Russia, mtengo mulingo woyenera wa mafuta lolingana madola 94. Malinga Anton Siluanov, anali nduna ya Finance, ndi zomvetsa wa bajeti Russian adzakhala zopanda thililiyoni 1 rubles, ngati mtengo wa mafuta adzakhala pa $ 75 cha 2015. Chifukwa chakuti mtengo mlingo wa mafuta kwambiri m'munsi kuposa anakonza, limati ndi kuchepetsa ndalama ndi azilipira iwo ku thumba malo.

Kuchepa kwa profitability ntchito yatsopano mu dziko

Low mitengo mafuta kugunda osati m'mayiko exporting, msika zinthu wasiya kungasokoneze chuma cha mayiko amene zikugwira kukhazikitsa ntchito zokhudzana m'zigawo zovuta kuti achire. Russia anakakamizika kusiya kukula kwa mafuta mu Arctic, monga mitengo ya zinthu dera ndi lofanana $ 90 pa mbiya. Vagit Alekperov, amene anali mkulu wa kampani "Lukoil" ananena kuti zaka zingapo zotsatira, voliyumu ya mafuta kupanga m'dziko adzakhala yafupika ndi osachepera 25%. N'zochititsa chidwi anakhudzidwa ntchito mu mafelemu a amene anapanga chitukuko cha madipoziti zikawonongeka "golide wakuda". Latsopano miyala ya mtundu uwu amakonzedwa mwachangu Brazil ndi ku Norway, Mexico ndi Russia. Chuma cha lililonse dziko alolera.

Kugwa kwa msika ndi zimene zikuchitika ku US

Kugwa mu mitengo mafuta mu Russia ndi ku dziko zinaonetsera America. zomvetsa lalikulu amayenera kupatsidwa makampani shale US. mu US mafuta shale si kusiyana ndi profitability Kumwambamwamba, amene anatsogolera zomvetsa ntchito mu ambiri a iwo. Ambiri a ntchito akhala zii. Shale zisinthe, lomwe limati pafupifupi dziko lonse, malinga ndi zimene akatswiri zinathera m'chaka kulephera. Popeza kuti tsopano zimasiyanasiyana madola 54-56 pa mtengo dziko msika wa mafuta pa mbiya, za ochulukaŵa phindu zinthu chitukuko dziko lomwe ndi sikuthandiza kuzikamba.

Amene amapindula ndi kugwa mitengo mafuta, kapena Mwandichitira chiwembu Chiphunzitsochi

Mwa akatswiri dziko, pali maganizo ambiri ndi ziphunzitso za amene anali Mlengi wa kugwa mu mitengo mafuta. Pakati pa mfundo ndi mfundo zomvetsa chuma m'mayiko amene mwamva nawo chiwembucho. Hassan Rowhani, amene anali pulezidenti wa Iran, zikusonyeza vinyo Saudi Arabia ndi Kuwait, omwe anafuna kuchepetsa kuchita Iran wa msika mafuta padziko lonse. Iwo analekerera chakuti m'mayiko amenewa pafupifupi zokwera mtengo kwambiri dziko zinthu zilili. Pali maganizo kuti ndikuuzeni za kuipitsidwa wa Saudi Arabia ndi United States, amene anafuna ulemu Russia mu dziko. Poganizira funso la amene amapindula ndi kugwa mitengo mafuta, akatswiri ena ankalemekeza pa chilakolako cha Saudi Arabia ndi chiwonongeko cha American mafuta makampani shale, monga pamapeto pake ndi kuopseza dziko.

Monga zinthu kuima kwenikweni?

Akatswiri amanena kuti kugwa mu mitengo mafuta - ndi zotsatira zachilengedwe a unyolo wonse wa zimene zinachitika mu dziko madzulo a kugwa msika. Zowombetsa mkota zonse zikhoza kuchepetsedwa kuonjezera chiwerengero cha maganizo. Shale zisinthe mu United States, kubwerera kwa mafuta msika wa Iran ndi Lebanon, amene posachedwapa chinkhoswe mu amchigulu, ndipo anatenga gawo mu nkhondoyo. Chimodzimodzi shale zisinthe mu United States, osati yotithandiza kuwonjezeka okwanira pa msika, chakhala chofunika achire ku yaikulu ogula malonda (America).

Patsogolo pa kugwa kwa msika mafuta

Mwadongosolo kuwonjezeka mtengo wa mafuta zaka, ziletso pa chitukuko cha chuma dziko, izo momveka bwino kuti mu zaka khumi zapitazi, anali ubwino mayiko mafuta exporting. Mwachitsanzo, Russia chifukwa kulumpha lakuthwa mu mitengo kwa mlingo wa madola 120 pa mbiya akhoza msanga kulipira ngongole yachilendo. Lero zinthu ndi anyamata. Ngakhale mayiko kwambiri-exporting adzaona kuchepa kwa zachuma ndi kuchepekedwa bajeti, osauka limati ndi maiko amene alibe zolimba kumanga kuti m'misika chofunika, akhoza kutenga sitepe patsogolo ndi zayamba kukwaniritsa zinthu pa msika dziko.

timapeza ndi ubwino kuchokera kugwa mu mitengo mafuta

Pamene mtengo wa mafuta, OPEC, America, Russia ndi mayiko ena chabe ndi sakukhutitsidwa, iwo kusewera m'manja mwa mayiko ena m'dzikoli. Kuchepetsa ndalama "golide wakuda" kumabweretsa kuchepetsa ndalama makampani ambiri padziko lonse. Mayendedwe a katundu kugwa mu mtengo, makampani ndalama zochepa pa kugula zipangizo ndi magetsi. Mayiko yoti motsutsa likhale zinthu padziko lonse unali wachilendo kuonjezera ndalama banja mawu enieni. Wonse zoipa amaganiza mu dziko Ndipotu yekha yotithandiza kakulidwe ka chuma mdziko. Malinga ndi ziwerengero kuyambirira, kuchepetsa mtengo wamafuta pa dongosolo la% ukuwonjezeka 30 ndi Iyamba Kuthamanga kukula kugunda ndi mfundo 0.5 Kugwa mitengo 10% kumapangitsa kukula kwa GDP yoti ndi "golide wakuda", osachepera 0,1 - 0,5 kuchuluka mfundo States mavuto kugwirizana ndi bajeti ndi kusintha malonda yachilendo. China 10% mafuta mtengo chuma kugwa Iyamba kukula kwa 0.1 - 0.2% chifukwa chakuti cholowa cha dziko mafuta chimachititsa% 18 zokha okwana wambiri mphamvu. Zilinso amadza yabwino pa India ndi Turkey, Indonesia ndi South Africa, amalimbikitsa malonda ena ndi kuchepetsa kufufuma. Ubwino wa kugwa msika pa lokha anamva mayiko ambiri EU ndi chuma ofooka ndipo ambiri a kum'mawa kwa Ulaya.

Kodi kuvutika mayiko OPEC akewo?

Ngakhale kuti kuwonongedwa kwa OPEC kuchepekedwa mtengo wa mafuta akhale pa mlingo wa madola 120 mpaka 136, zinthu chonse sanakhaliretu nkhonya chakupha chuma. Ndipotu, mitengo ya zinthu mafuta m'mayiko OPEC nawo wakhala pa madola 5 7. Kuphimba mkulu ndalama chikhalidwe cha boma m'mayiko boma zikanabwera kukwaniritsa mtengo wa Brent mafuta yosakongola m'chigawo cha $ 70. Kukana kuchepetsa mafuta mabuku kupanga akhoza zimachitika osati collude, ndi awonera m'mbuyomo. Pamene 80-90-ntchentche za zokambirana za mayiko m'mbuyo kugwa mu mitengo, iwo anamizidwa ndi gawo lawo msika mwamsanga kwambiri wotanganidwa ndi mpikisano. chuma amakana ngakhale ndi wamphamvu kwambiri chifukwa zinthu pa dziko, koma si oopsa. States tipitirizebe kukhala malamulo ake, imene ili zakonzedwa kuonjezera pachaka kupanga buku la mafuta si zosakwana 30%.

kusintha zinthu, akatswiri zotani?

Poganizira funso la amene amapindula ndi kugwa mitengo mafuta, akatswiri ananenetsa kuti ntchito kwambiri cha mmene zinthu sanalandire ambiri m'mayiko olemera ndi China. zinthu sadzakhala boma malo amodzi mpaka kalekale, chifukwa pa nthawi ya mafuta kwambiri saganizira. Mtengo wake weniweni ayenera kukhala mu osiyanasiyana $ 100. Mu zaka zingapo zotsatira, mpaka nthawi monga adzakhala moyenera chuma cha padziko lonse, mtengo uwu si n'kothandiza kwambiri. Edward Morse, amene anali mtsogoleri wa dipatimenti ya kusanthula misika padziko lonse kampani ya Citigroup, kupanga 70 $ 90 ndalama pa mtengo osiyanasiyana pa mbiya. Mu maganizo ake, ndi mtengo uwu adzalola mayiko zochepa otukuka kuti andipeze nawo mpikisano awo anayamba chifukwa kuyimitsidwa wa yotsirizira chifukwa ndalama m'munsi ku malonda a mafuta. Mtengo wa mafuta zaka limasonyeza kuti tsopano anali kwa limati achinyamata kutenga udindo msika lonse.

Zoneneratu wa mabungwe akuluakulu mlingo mu dziko

Kafukufuku m'tsogolo kuti kodi mtengo wa mafuta rubles ndi madola, akatswiri osiyanasiyana ankasiyana insignificantly. Oyimira a ndalama kubanki Morgan Stanley pamtengo mu $ 70 pa mbiya pofika cha 2015 ndi $ 88 ndi mapeto a 2016. Mapa zachokera kulephera kwa OPEC kuchepetsa kupanga mafuta. Fitch Mavoti wapereka Zoneneratu kwabasi kundiposa. akazembe ake kunena za mtengo wa madola 83 pakutha kwa chaka ndi mtengo wa madola 90 mu 2016. Ichi ndi chifukwa kuyembekezera kuchepa kukula underdeveloped chuma 4%, amene akhoza kutsutsana ndi akatswiri ena ambiri. Ambiri mwa akatswiri amagwirizana ndi maganizo a anzake ndi chimango ndi zinthu za dollar yeniyeni. Mtengo wa mafuta yaitali sadzakhala zosakwana $ 100, ndi chifukwa chachikulu kuti - zikutha m'mayiko mwadongosolo madipoziti mafuta ndi profitability otsika ndi kukula kwa chiwerengero cha magalimoto dziko.

Polongosola mwachidule, chithunzi chonse cha zimene zikuchitika kapena

Koyamba, palibe wabwino kudikira zinali zopanda zimene catastrophically linayamba kugwera mtengo wa mafuta. Analytics mozama kuganizira anaona ubwino zinthu pa msika dziko. Chuma cha padziko lonse alandirika zinthu bwino. Malinga Lagarde ndi IMF Akuti mafuta dontho anayamba chuma angayembekezere kuenjezera GDP pa 0,8%, makamaka kwa USA chithunzi ichi limafanana ndi 0,6%. Kugwa mu mitengo mafuta amalimbikitsa kugwa mu mtengo kwa mafuta amene atsegula mwayi kuonjezera ndalama pa zinthu zina ndi ntchito. kuchira chuma ndi chitukuko adzakhala chikhulupiriro ndi khola. Anaphunzirapo mtengo wa mafuta, ndi katswiri ku Oxford Economics Company inanena kuti pa mtengo wa $ 60 pa mbiya pa zaka ziwiri zapitazi, odziŵa za kukula GDP ku China udzakhala wautali ndi 0.4% mu Japan ndi 0,1 United States - 0.2%.