Kodi dollar kugwa? ndi olosera dollar

Pamene powafunsa akatswiri palokha zinali zosachita kufunsa ndithu kuti ambiri mwa anthu akuda nkhawa funso ngati dollar zidzagwa. Russia ndi chidwi okhala mu malo oyamba chifukwa chakuti ndi US kuwombola dollar mlingo amasankha mtengo wa imports ndipo, chotero, mtengo wa namtindi wa mankhwala. Pali chiyanjano lophweka. Kukwera mtengo kwa golide wakuda amatipatsa inflow a madola mu msika m'banja, ruble wakhala mwachangu kulimbitsa, ndi anthu a dziko mukhoza kugula katundu pa mtengo wololera. Ngati mtengo mafuta akugwa, chithunzicho chimakula kwathunthu anyamata, ndi muyezo wa chikhalidwe mwasewero yafupika.

Atsogoleri bajeti mu 2015

Mu November 2014 zinaonekeratu ndithu kuti yokonza bajeti 2015 osati kwambiri zizigwirizana zenizeni. Tikaganizira kukonzekera Popeza kuti mbiya ya golidi wakuda ndalama mu dziko msika osati ndalama zokwana madola 96. Kuchokera pa index ichi, dola mu mabanki pa 2015 sayenera upambana 37 rubles. Ndinadabwa zosayembekezereka zachitika kale mu November 2014. Pa nthawi imene US dola kusinthitsa ndalama chofanana 48 rubles. Mwa mwezi wa December chaka chomwecho, izo anakonzeka 60 rubles. Pachimake ndipo kunatha mu chithunzi ndi pafupifupi 68 rubles. Panthawi zovuta Chaka Chatsopano, akatswiri padziko lonse ndipo sanayese n'komwe kulankhula za kugwa kwa maphunzirowa. Zoneneratu ankakhala pafupi kukula ndi zina mwa ndalama. Akatswiri ena anati za kufika chilemba cha rubles 100 dollar. Sikuti kuchepa kwa mafuta, komanso zinthu zina zofunika akhala prerequisites zochitika negative.

Kodi vuto ndi kuchepekedwa bajeti?

Akatswiri, kutenga nkhani ya kuchepekedwa bajeti chifukwa yafupika inflow wa ndalama zakunja chifukwa kugwa mu mitengo mafuta, nkhani ya zotheka, ngakhale kuchira bwino. Pali prerequisites onse ofunika kugwa, ndi kukula kwa ndalama. Zonse zimadalira mmene zinthu zidzapitirira msika mafuta padziko lonse. Ngakhale tikhoza kunena kuti posachedwapa dollar zidzagwa pang'ono mu Russia, amene mwachindunji zokhudzana ndi konzanso ya mtengo wa golide wakuda. Ngakhale akuluakulu mafuta earners wa dziko kubwezeretsa nkhokwe zake ndalama pambuyo drawdown zikuluzikulu, dollar adzakhala kutha. Ngati mlingo pano limafanana rubles 54,5 pa dola, inu mukhoza kuyembekezera kusiya kwa 46-48 rubles. Yadzaoneni zinthu pa mtengo mafuta, chomwe tsopano malonda pa madola 66,6 pa mbiya pa uptrend wamphamvu, tikhoza kale kuti dollar adzagwera mu msika. Pa nthawi yomweyo mu June, anali ndi Msonkhano wofunika kwa States M'Bungwe OPEC amene zochita unapangidwa, umene mbali yofunika kwambiri mu mitengo mu msika mafuta, choncho bwanji dollar mu Russia.

zinthu osokoneza andale

Information mobwerezabwereza adalowa atolankhani padziko lonse pambuyo analanda dziko la Crimea ndi nkhondo yomweyi kum'mawa Ukraine ndi Russia anali amavomereza. Iwo kwambiri kugunda Boma ambiri a chuma nayikapo kungasokoneze zinthu chuma m'dziko. Akhudzidwa kwambiri mafuta kupanga ndi makampani asilikali, anapeza amene amapanga zambiri za ndalama za boma ndipo kuti imayendetsedwa dollar mu Russia pa mlingo akadakwanitsira. The vuto lalikulu ndi kupanda mwayi osakongola mabungwe ndalama zakunja. Malipiro malipiro a ngongole kale chikalata kukakamiza boma kuti mwachangu kugula madola, amene basi kumabweretsa wokwera.

Kodi maulosi zikhoza kupangidwa ndi kusanthula malamulo a Russia?

Kuti tiyankhe funso ngati dollar zidzagwa, zochokera mavuto azandale dziko, ndi mabvuto kwambiri. Ziletso ndi Russia osati maiko Western Musasinthe, koma m'madera ena omangika. Kulephera kutenga wotchipa ngongole ndalama zakunja wodzilemekeza eksodo ya ndalama zakunja kwa dziko, amene anali limodzi ndi outflow wa ndalama zakunja. Corruption ndi kuthamanga kwambiri ndi akuluakulu a malonda chifukwa kulanda ntchito zapakhomo mu zikawonongeka. mfundo zonsezi zikusonyeza kuti dola pa magombe mu yochepa sadzasintha kwambiri. Tiyerekeze kuti falitsani kumbuyo pa maziko a kuwonjezeka pang'ono mitengo mafuta, koma kusintha kwakukulu, akatswiri musati amalangiza kudikira mpaka kutopa nkhondo monga Ukraine ndi mayiko a ku ulaya ndi America.

Mapa yochokera ku zochitika m'banja pagulu

Kuwonjezera zinthu zina, chaka chatsopano mavuto chaka chatha anali anayambitsa ndi mavuto mkati boma. Pa zaka 15 zapitazi dziko alibe anatha kusintha chitsanzo yaiwisi ndalama amakono. Mafuta makampani pafupifupi anadya chuma chonse chopezeka ndi kufalitsa ndalama pakati pa boma zigawo ndalama kunali m'goli. Kugwiritsa chitukuko cha mafakitale mafuta zachititsa kuti kuchepa kwa malo ena a zachuma. Chifukwa, ife tikhoza kuwona dollar kwambiri. Odziŵa kuyamikira ndi zina mwa ndalama US zikhoza kuchitika, kuyambira chakuti panthawi ya kusintha structural pamene palibe m'tsogolo. Popanda kukonzanso chachikulu chuma sisintha, motero mlingo kuwombola adzatsala silamphamvu.

Kodi zovuta kulosera?

Katswiri maganizo pa nkhani ngati kudzakhala dollar kugwa kwambiri mogwirizana zayamba. Palibe amapereka kudzikonda amatitsimikizira kayendedwe ndalama yaitali. Ngati kumapeto kwa 2014, akatswiri ambiri molimba kukangana ruble kukwera kwa mlingo wa mayunitsi zana kwa dollar 1, tsopano maganizo zasintha. Akatswiri timakonda kukhulupirira kuti dola kugwa ndi kukhala ndi chidaliro azimuth. The vuto akuneneratu chifukwa ambiri ntchito zongopeka ndi ndalama American, limene mawu a kuchepekedwa ake m'dziko akhoza kukhala chifukwa cha kusinthasintha lakuthwa. Mphamvu ya dollar amadalira kupereka ngongole makampani akuluakulu Russian. Mwachitsanzo, mu December chaka chatha ndipo January chaka chino, inathetsedwa biliyoni 32-33 madola a ngongole. Purchase wa ndalama zakunja pa interbank msika kumabweretsa kulumpha m'mabuku ndi chisangalalo cha anthu, pakalibe malipilo ndi Bank wa Central.

mfundo Bank chapakati tingadziwire dola

Kuti zambiri zimakhudza zochita Bank chapakati pa kulowetsedwa mu msika lonse. Ngakhale kuti boma la Russia tiyeni ndalama tiwolokere momasuka izo wasunga ufulu kusintha mtengo wa ruble pa umphawi wadzaoneni. Popeza kuti ndi Russia imodzi yaikulu nkhokwe za golide mu dziko, tikhoza kulankhula za luso dziko kuletsa ndalama dziko mochuluka akamavutika. Pa nthawi iliyonse, Bank ku Central kuti timasintha dola. Ngati mu chimango cha mfundo ndalama adzakhala akuthamanga makina osindikizira ndi adzamasula ndalama opusa, ndalama US zikuchepa awuluke, kuopseza devaluation wa ruble lapansi. Ngati mtsinje ndi osathandiza ndalama adakali mwamphamvu m'manja mwa boma, tinganene kuti chiyembekezo kulimbitsa ruble ndi kuchepa dola a.

Zoneneratu amtengo chidaliro

Pali mitundu itatu ya amaneneratu. Ndi amtengo chidaliro, chidaliro ndi zimene sizikuyenda bwino. Poganizira aliyense wa zochitika zimene mungachite, tingalankhule ngati dollar ukugwa. optimists zolimbitsa chiyembekezo cha Russia ndi ku Ulaya kulephera kukhala chuma amphamvu popanda mphamvu m'banja. Akatswiri ntchito kuti otsika mtengo mafuta ndi opanda pake mu dziko, ndipo posakhalitsa zinthu adzakhala ziziyenda ndi lonse msika mafuta, ndi chuma Russian. Iwo kumaona dola. Mapa ya oyima awo pa maphunzirowa mu 38-42 rubles pofika cha 2015.

Ziyenda view za moyo ndi dola

chakuti dollar ukugwa, iwo amati, ndi kufa zovuta optimists. Izi makamaka oimira zida boma ndi anthu pafupi ndi iwo. Sikuti vuto lenileni ndi chinachititsa ndale. maganizo awo anaima pa mfundo yakuti kugwa kwa mafuta - mlandu wa boma US ndi manja a anzawo. Cholinga cha mdani ndi - ndi zokambirana ankhondo ndi andale Russia. Zopusa za Zimenezi m'tsogolo ayenera kukhala bwino ndi chilimwe 2015. Malinga Zoneneratu, mu 2016 dziko latsopano adzakomana alendo pa boma chisanadze mavuto. Akaunti si kokha chifukwa chakuti chifukwa kugwa mu mtengo wa golidi wakuda pa dziko msika akuvutika ndi America yokha, ngati mafuta shale si wotchipa kukhala.

Pessimists - akatswiri ambiri ndi akatswiri

Gulu lalikulu kwambiri akatswiri amakhulupirira kuti dola, Bank ku Central anapereka lero pa mlingo wa 54,5, sabwereranso ku maanja chisanadze mavuto njira. Owolowa manja okonda ofufuza amanenanso za kukula kwa ndalama ndi chizindikiro cha 100 rubles. The zifukwa iwo kuona ndalama mavuto, mavuto a ngongole ndi bankirapuse wa nambala ambiri a mabanki ndi mabungwe ang'onoang'ono. Pakhala nkhani zomwe Russia nditembenukire mbali ya chuma lamulo ndipo ngakhale kupanga ndi kusinthidwa mtundu wa USSR. Akuyembekezera mavuto amazipanga kwambiri zimapangitsa mupewe mavuto chikhalidwe ndi za perete wa sovereignties.

Apa m'pofunika Tulukani ndipo zimasonyeza chakuti palibe Zoneneratu akuluakulu anazisiya miyezi isanu ndi umodzi, sichinatheke ndi theka. Ichi chimapereka chifukwa chabwino chokhulupirira kuti ena, kapena ngakhale N'kutheka, kulosera malangizo a dola sizimatanthauza, kuyambira mwachindunji kugwirizana kuwombola ndi ntchito zachuma akhala yathyoledwa.