The devaluation a hryvnia mu 2014: akukhudza chuma

Kugwa kwa hryvnia inayamba mu 2014 - gawo yogwira maidan lapansi. Komabe, akatswiri a maganizo kuti prerequisites onse kugwa kwa ndalama kuyambira chiyambi cha 2013 chifukwa boma osauka kwambiri za chuma, kudzandira kuyambira mavuto 2008-2009. Choncho, ndithudi anakhalabe chongopeka ndi malonda a nkhokwe ndalama zakunja kwa Bank ku Central a Ukraine.

The devaluation a hryvnia lapansi. Ndi chiyani icho?

Devaluation ndi ndondomeko imene dziko mtengo ndalama kugwa poyerekezera ndi ndalama zakunja, kuti pali depreciation ya ndalama.

Mu mawu ena, devaluation wa hryvnia Chiyukireniya - ndi kuchepa kusinthitsa ndalama zake ndi ndalama zakunja.

Devaluation akhoza kukhala omasuka ndi chobisika. Pamene inu kutsegula devaluation wa Bank ku Central akulengeza izi, ndi kuwonongeka kwa ndalama kuti anasinthanitsa kapena kusuta. Pamene boma zobisika amachepetsa mtengo wa ndalama dziko. Ndalama si umasinthanitsidwa ndi asamangokhala.

zotsatira

devaluation wa pangakhale zabwino kapena zoipa.

Pakati pa choikapo zabwino:

• kuwonjezera kufunika zoweta;
• kuchepetsa nkhokwe lonse la zolowa;
• chingatilimbikitse kuti katundu.

Komabe, zotsatira zoipa yofunika kwambiri. Mu nkhani ya devaluation zotsatirazi kumachitika:

• zinayambitsa ndi kuwuka kufufuma;
• Iwo eroding chidaliro cha anthu ndalama dziko;
• imports katundu m'mbuyo chifukwa ukuwonjezeka mtengo;
• Anthu amakonda kutapa ndalama zawo zonse pa nkhani za mabanki;
• kugula ntchito yafupika chifukwa kuchepetsa malipilo ndi penshoni.

Ukraine. The devaluation a hryvnia ndi

Mu February 2014 panali devaluation wa peresenti twente-faifi. M'malo eyiti hryvnia kwa dola imodzi tsopano anali kupereka khumi. Ndipo mu May, ngakhale kuti nkhokwe Bank chapakati zidagwa mabiliyoni asanu hryvnia devaluation anakwana magawo fifite.

Pa nthawi yomweyo, Ukraine analandira tranche loyamba la madola mabiliyoni khumi. The devaluation a hryvnia kuti kuima chifukwa cha ichi. Komabe, sikuti anapitiriza iwonongeke. Crimea anali linalanda kwa Russia, mu Donbas anapitiriza nkhondo yapachiweniweni, ndi kampani ndi m'gawo, analalikira okha Republic of Donetsk ndi Republic Luhansk anthu, anasiya misonkho kuti Kiev.

Choncho, mu August, panali devaluation ina hryvnia mu 2014. Voterani waponya kuchokera hryvnia khumi kwa dola imodzi ndi khumi ndi theka. Chifukwa cha zochita za chiŵerengero Bank a ku Central ndi penapake linayamba ndi pamaso chisankho chifukwa zochita za thumba golide wa Ukraine olembedwa kuchuluka kwa hryvnia khumi ndi masenti makumi asanu ndi anayi mphambu zisanu pa dola. Komabe, pambuyo masankho, kuthandiza hryvnia Chiyukireniya zatha, Inde kachiwiri mantha.

Mu mlungu dola anakonzeka sikisitini ndi hryvnia ang'ono, ndi devaluation wa hryvnia mu Ukraine (2014 chaka mapeto) anakwana zana pa zana.

International Monetary Fund

Chifukwa chachikulu kuwonongeka kwa zinthu chuma kukhazikitsidwa kwa zofunikira za mu International Monetary Ford. Tikupempha ngongole IMF Kiev anapita ufulu mlingo chikukonzekera, kuwonjezera anthu tariffs kwa mpweya ndi ngongole zina zofunikira, chimene chinapangitsa mantha anthu. Anthu asiya kukhulupirira boma lawo, iwo anatenga ndalama nkhani gawo ndi misa kugula ndalama.

Chuma mavuto mu Ukraine zinachitikadi. Mu nineties mochedwa, mavuto Russian zakhudza dziko, ndipo mu 2008 - dziko. Mu zaka zimenezo, devaluation a hryvnia ndi inachitikanso. Komabe, boma sanafooke ndalama kulowera, monga momwe Adachitidwira mu 2014.

Chotero muyeso zinangokhala bwino m'dziko ndi chuma amphamvu ndi ndalama dziko, mothandizidwa ndi golide kapena uphungu. Pankhani ya Ukraine, chuma amakhala ndi kudalilika ndi kukhazikika. Akatswiri mobwerezabwereza kuti anenepo maganizo awo nkhani hryvnia popanda kuyang'aniridwa ku Bank National adzachititsa otaya likulu - kwa hryvnia adzayesa kugula ndalama zakunja.

Potulutsa hryvnia. zotsatira

Ndipo kotero izo zinachitika. Ndalama unatengedwa kuchokera madipoziti, ndi banki chapakati pa nthawi iyi inakhazikitsa ndi ndalama zina kwa mabanki kukhalabe liquidity. Kusinthanitsa kwa ndalama anayamba kutsogolera speculators.

Mu August, Bank National anagula nsinga boma, "Ukraine Naftogaz" pa hryvnia biliyoni zana. ndalama inasamutsidwa ku ndalama zakunja, zomwe zachititsa kuti kulumpha watsopano mitengo. Choncho Bank ku Central, popanda njira ya nkhondoyo, anathandiza kukula mlingo.

Komanso makampani kuti Tumizani katundu, ayesa kusunga analandira ndalama zakunja ngati n'zotheka, kufalitsa pa mpikisano. zasungidwa kuwombola okhonda chifukwa cha ichi yafupika.

Amalonda ndayesera kuti agwire ntchito pa midzi kunja Ukraine, ntchito zosiyanasiyana ziwembu mabanki m'derali bwanji likulu. Ndipo adayesa kuti abweretse ndalama zimene kukagawira.

Pa nthawi yomweyo ndalama za kwambiri yafupika. Makampani amayesedwa mwa mbedza kapena ndi wakuba kutenga ndalama zawo ku sizimadziwika ndi alamu zone, kumene kuopsa pakuika ndalama yaikulu. Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa boma, kuyambira chiyambi cha chaka Ukraine wataya khumi khumi hundredths a madola biliyoni ya ndalama mwachindunji, omwe analipo pafupi twente peresenti ya ndalama okwana inflows ndalama.

miyeso Anti-mavuto

Akatswiri onse mawu amodzi kunena kuti devaluation a hryvnia makamaka zinachitika chifukwa kumasula hryvnia ndi kukana mtengo amodzi kuwombola. Ndipo kodi chinthu choyamba cha olimba a ndalama zidzakhala kukana yoyandama Kusinthanitsa kwa ndalama, ndi kubwerera ku lokhazikika.

Monga ambiri odana ndi mavuto miyeso akufuna kuchititsa mfundo zambiri okhwima umalimbana kuchepetsa ntchito zongoganizira, kuchuluka kwa wolowa makamaka gawo ulimi. Kulinso maganizo kwa chiyembekezo chakuti ya amagulitsa nsombazo kuwombola ena ndi kuukitsa chiwongola dzanja kwa kufufuma Mapa.

Akatswiri ena Chiyukireniya ndikukhulupirira kuti Bank National ali zipangizo zonse zofunikira kuthetsa mavuto ndalama, koma pazifukwa zina, musati ntchito. Koma chilichonse chimene kucitika mwa Bank National Kumayambiriro a 2015 hryvnia kugwa kukula, mlingo anafika makumi atatu hryvnia kwa dola imodzi.

The zotsatira za devaluation a hryvnia mu 2014

Katswiri Economic Alexander Okhrimenko linanena kuti kunali mavuto a malipiro pafupifupi ndi za zana madola, koma zikhoza kuchepetsedwa kwa makumi asanu. Okha yogwira ambiri adzakhala ndi moyo mwa chilengedwe panopa. otsalawo adzakhala wochotseka.

Kumawonjezera mtengo wa ngongole ku ndalama zakunja, iwo kulipira pang'ono kapena palibe malipiro. Izi ndi zotsatira za zodabwitsazi zosasangalatsa kwa chuma, monga devaluation a hryvnia lapansi. Mu 2014, magombe anatenga njira zatsopano - iwo anayamba kupanga otchedwa malo kochepa anagulitsa ndalama zoposa anagula. Pakutha 2014, maudindo lalifupi anakwana madola mabiliyoni asanu. Koma chifukwa tsopano mabanki simungathe kugula madola pa hryvnia makumi atatu ndi kubala zomvetsa yaikulu.

Ziziyenda zinthu, izo akumufunsira Okhrimenko mandala banki mfundo refinancing; amapanga zonse ndalama zakunja chuma msinga ndi ntchito chimaposa kuonjezera nkhokwe za golide; ufulu madipoziti ndi kuonjezera mitengo ya msonkho pa iwo, ndi kukweza yosaloledwa ndalama msika.

Zikuoneka kuti Ukraine adzatha kubwerera ku mlingo 2013 pafupifupi 5-7 zaka. Ndipo zosintha adzakhala zotheka pambuyo mavuto mu kum'mawa kwa dziko.

Makampani ku Ukraine makamaka oligarchs ake. Iwo kumenyana okha-okha mphamvu ndi chuma. Choncho, ndalama kunja kokha kudza pambuyo, pamene mapeto a nkhondo pakati pawo.

Mfundo yaikulu ya mavuto Chiyukireniya

mavuto onse, kuphatikizapo kugwa hryvnia, anaganiza kulemba pa nkhondo Donbas. Komabe, kwa miyezi ingapo, osachepera lokha ukugwira ndi osayanjanitsika, ndi hryvnia wafika pachimake kugwa yotsatira. Ndi kusintha si kuyembekezera.

Mwachionekere, kulephera kuthetsa mavuto a zachuma a kuyesera thanani nkhondo. kusafuna A kunyengerera ndi Donbas amapanga latsopano ndi kulimbikitsa anthu akale (kuphatikizapo chuma) mavuto a Ukraine.

anapezazo

Nkhondo wawononga oligarchs dziko. Koma chinthu choyipa - ndi kuti nkhondo mu kum'mwera chakum'mawa kwa Ukraine zachititsa zomvetsa chachikulu. N'zosatheka kuthetsa mavuto azachuma mu chikhalidwe mwangwiro chuma ndipo musakhudze ndi chigawo ndale. Tsopano masewero kwambiri mu Ukraine. Kuyambira ndi kuthetsa vuto mu kum'mwera chakum'mawa zimadalira tsoka tsogolo la dziko.