Pamene dollar wagwa? Kodi kudziwa zinthu pa ndalama msika ndipo mudziwitse: dollar zidzagwa kapena adzauka?

US dola ndi ruble ndi yovuta zisakuyenda pambuyo mavuto 2008-2009. US ndalama wagwa mu mtengo kwambiri. Mu 2013 ndi kumayambiriro kwa 2014 - izo wakula kachiwiri. Market akatswiri amakhulupirira kuti vutoli, komanso mayankho a funso ngati dollar zidzagwa, zimakhudza osiyanasiyana zinthu, onse chuma ndi ndale.

Mtengo wa mafuta

Malinga ndi chimodzi, dola motsutsa ruble mu 2014, zimasiyana kwambiri. Kukwera lakuthwa mu ndalama US akhozanso kukopeka ndi kuchepetsa mwapang'onopang'ono udindo wa banknotes Russian. The ruble, malinga ndi akatswiri, zimadalira amadalira mitengo mafuta. The apamwamba ndi, dola ofooka. Ngati mtengo mafuta akugwa, boma la Russia ali azilipira kwa drawdown mu bajeti, kodi zimamutchipitsa ndi ruble, kuthandiza ndi katundu "golide wakuda" panonso.

Komabe, deta zabwino zachuma akubwera kuchokera US ndi EU pang'onopang'ono njira mwa mavuto yaitali, kuti mitengo mafuta adzatsala pa mkulu mlingo (kuzungulira $ 100 mbiya). The ruble potero analimbitsa kugonjetsedwa chuma Western. Mu 2014, pamene mitengo mafuta zikuchepa kuchita ndi kuchepa mphamvu, ndalama Russian pambuyo wachibale izi mtengo kwa US. Ngati M'malo mwake - izo zokha kudikira mpaka dollar zidzagwa.

Ruble - osati ofooka

Pali view kuti ruble Russian wonse, si ndalama ofooka. Malinga ndi ziwerengero za mbali ya nkhani yolembedwa ichi, dziko banki cholemba yalimbikitsa dziko lathu kwa zaka 10 zapitazi ndi 60% mu mawu enieni. Mwachitsanzo, anthu a zaka zonsezi, anali ndalama mu rubles, iwo momveka anapambana. Pa nthawi yomweyo, ngati mtima wa ndalama Russian, chuma ndikukhulupirira, posapita nthawi, adzakhululukidwa wogulira mu. Ngakhale buku lalikulu la zogulitsa kunja mafuta, ndi inflow ukonde wa ndalama (mu mawonekedwe a malipiro, Mabaibulo) ndi otsika. Chuma Russian, motero, angathe kupeza vuto ili, ndi Ruble, chifukwa, dollar adzabwerera "chisomo" cha m'mbuyomu.

Komabe, "matabwa"

Akatswiri ena amakhulupirira kuti ruble - ndalama, imene n'zovuta kukhala ndi chidaliro: mmene zinthu dollar adzagwa kapena kuuka kwa Russian banki cholemba - kulosera kovuta. Wokwanira kukumbukira 90s, pamene ruble akhoza panthawi kwambiri inopportune musakhale kupirira "pepala" chirichonse. zinthu zambiri pachikhalidwe chikoka pa kusinthitsa ndalama Russian: ndizo za mtengo wa mafuta, malamulo a Bank ku Central poyerekezera ndi dongosolo banki khalidwe la CB payekha.

Zoneneratu cha 2014 Chaka The sakulamulira kuti ruble ndi devalued - makamaka chifukwa Russia analowa WTO, kuti cholowa cha imports kukwera, ndi kupanga zoweta - yafupika. Pali manambala mapeto a 2013 yuro anafika 45 rubles pamene wina mu 2012, muyeso yofanana zinkaoneka ngati zosatheka. Choncho sitingathe akatsimikizire kuwonjezeka mlingo magawo 50 a ndalama Russian kwa European umodzi. Nawonso chuma US zaposachedwapa, pali zizindikiro za olimba, ndipo akatswiri poyerekezera ndi dola zinthu ziyenda bwino kwambiri.

Iwo safuna tinganene kuti amanena

Ngakhale kuti msika Akatswiri kukhala sizikuyenda bwino za ruble, palibe aliyense amene si amalangiza kuti aganyali ndalama US monga mawonekedwe a ndalama. Pali lomwe anthu a chongopeka kuwopseza anaitanidwa mapepala a chuma, komanso magetsi a mbiri zosiyanasiyana ndi miseche cholinga chokhacho - kuutsa kugula Russia ngati n'kotheka buku lalikulu la ndalama US. Awa "ambuye" wa banknotes - osati speculators, ndi mabanki chapakati. Ndi iwo amene asankha pamene dollar ukugwa, ndipo pamene akukula.

Pali chidwi mawonedwe: ngati Russia adzatha kuti asatengere pa Bank wathu Central, omwe akadali ntchito, kani, kusunga zofuna za oligarchs, osati anthu, "nsikidzi" Mwina pita 30 rubles pofika cha 2014. Komanso, akatswiri ena kutsindika - ngakhale pali kuwonongeka lakuthwa mu mavuto azachuma, kutaya boma ndi Fund Reserve, kumene "katundu" pafupifupi thililiyoni 5 rubles. Ndizo zokwanira kuphimba lalikulu kwambiri kuchepekedwa bajeti.

ziyenda view

Malinga ndi zimene ananena akatswiri angapo a mu njira ya malonda ndalama mwezi watha anati masiteji, pamene Bank Central, Russia Kodi makhalidwe iliyonse phukusi kuwombola yachilendo. Njira ya banknotes mitundu, motero, anagwera mu otchedwa "kulowera ndale" pamene Bank ku Central zilibe: dollar adzauka kapena kugwa. "Zina kuti adzipeza ndalama dengu" mtengo Panthawi imeneyi musalumphe kufunika yovuta kwa Bank ku Central cha mtengo wa 41 rubles. Pali zinthu wachibadidwe ndi zongoganizira khalidwe winanso wa ndalama Russian ndi dola ndi yuro.

Ponena za choyamba - pali kuwonjezeka kwambiri malonda bwino Russia. Ichi ndi chifukwa cha mlili wa zinthu bwino chuma cha mayiko m'dera yuro, ndizo chuma abwenzi chachikulu cha dziko lathu. The ECB limaneneratu kuti GDP m'maderawa angathe kukula ndi 1.1% kumapeto kwa 2014. Chifukwa, izo zikhoza kuwonjezeka kufunika kwa chuma mafuta a Russia, komanso kumaonjezera mitengo awo. Komanso, kufooka kwa ruble ndi dola ndi yuro kumene kunachitika mu 2014 Ndipotu, kusintha malonda bwino chiyamiko dziko kwa yogwira inatha M'MALO. Choncho si chakuti Russian malonda ali ndi kuyembekezera, pamene dollar ukugwa.

Ziwerengero ku State

Russian Utumiki wa Development Economic limaneneratu kuti ruble (mawu enieni ogwira) mu 2014 kufooketsa ndi 7.4% (pamene ena nthawi zapitazo kuchepetsa mtengo mawerengedwe anali 1.5%). chiwerengerochi analengeza pa mlingo wokweretsa othandiza. Mu 2015, ndalama Russian akhoza monga Development Economic amakhulupirira analimbikitsidwa ndi 0.2% mu 2016 - 1.1%, ndipo pang'ono mu 2017 - 0.1%. The ruble ndi dollar mu 2014, monga bungwe, mu pafupifupi pachaka anali 36,3 mayunitsi (poyerekeza 33,9 pa mawerengedwe yapita). Mu 2015, a "tonde", chikuyembekezeka ndalama 38,8 Russian banknotes, mu 2016 pafupi zofanana - 38,7, mu 2017, kwambiri, popanda kusintha kulikonse - 38,5.

Utumiki wa Development zachuma amakhulupirira kuti mtengo pafupifupi kwa mbiya ya mafuta Urals mabwato zingawonjezere kuti madola 104, ndipo 2015-2016. ikagwa mayunitsi 100 a ndalama US. Mu 2017, a "golide wakuda", malinga ndi bungwe adalosera kugwa mu mtengo kuti madola 98 pa mbiya. boma mwina si ndikudabwa kumene dollar adzagwera mu mtengo.

Ziwerengero kwa akatswiri

Malinga ndi Mapa watsopano wa banki ndalama UBS, ndi Russian chuma mu 2014 kukula ndi% 1.5 okha (pomwe kuwerengetsera yapita pankakhala chithunzi cha 2.5%), mu 2015 - 2% (m'mbuyomu ankayembekezera 2 , 8%). Chifukwa revaluation la masomphenya a zinthu chuma m'dziko lathu, akatswiri amayembekezera kuti bungwe ngongole, kuti "ndalama wapawiri" dengu, amene tamutchula pamwambapa, chikhoza kukhala chinthu 44,2 rubles pofika cha 2014 (poyamba anaitanidwa chithunzi cha 40,7 Russian mayunitsi ndalama).

Ponena za chibale Pamalo ya dollar ndi yuro, pofika cha 2014, UBS ofufuza kuyembekezera kuti 1 unit wa ndalama American ndalama 1,25 banknotes European. Izi ziri mu mzere ndi ziyembekezo pa ruble (37.6 pa dola ndi December 2014). Mu 2015 yuro ndi akukhulupirira UBS «tonde" kugwa mu mtengo kwa mlingo wa 1,20. ofufuza banki amayembekezera kuti Russian banki chapakati sadzasintha malonda ndalama, koma si kulamulira kuti mfundo ndalama za Bank ku Central adzakhala olimba kwambiri. Koma Zoneneratu awo ndi pafupifupi munthu mfundozo pa chitukuko cha chuma wathu pamene dollar ukugwa.

Chiyukireniya chinthu

Akatswiri Russian musamunyozetse zinthu ku Ukraine ndi dollar US poyerekezera ndi khalidwe la ndalama mtundu wa dziko loyandikana nalo - ndalama dziko. The International Monetary Fund amaona mtengo wololera mayunitsi 10.5-11 a zolemba banki kuti "tonde". Palinso Tiyerekezenso sizikuyenda bwino zimene dollar akhoza kuuka kwa 12-13 hryvnia. Zina mwa zifukwa - kuwuka mu mitengo mpweya kwa Ukraine, akuchuluka malonda mgwirizano ndi Russia, zomwe zingakubweretsereni muyezo dziko la malipiro kuchepekedwa ndi kukhala ndi devaluation a hryvnia lapansi. Zofunika chinthu cha ulamuliro wa IMF.

Ngati thumba adzakupatsani Ukraine ngongoleyo, dziko la ndalama dziko ndi dola kungathandize. Tranche ku IMF akhoza kukhala chizindikiro zabwino kwa ndalama zochokera kunja ndi amalonda. zina zosonyeza umodzi zabwino - maganizo a atsogoleli a Russia ndi United States amathandiza kuti Maganizo a zinthu mu dziko kudzera mu njira zamtendere. Koma masewera andale - ndondomeko ndi zovuta kwambiri kudziwa bwinobwino ngati dollar adzagwera mu Ukraine.

Zoneneratu ochenjera

Akatswiri amanena kuti kumvetsa mmene dola adzadzikuza zochokera "Inde tsogolo", n'zosavuta - zikomo kwa chakuti Bank Central, Russia limafalitsa ndi Kusinthanitsa kwa ndalama ya tsiku nduna mawa. Ndi kovuta kwambiri kuti Zoneneratu yaitali motsimikiza pamene dola kapena yuro adzagwa, simungathe. US dola kusinthitsa ndalama poyerekezera Russia amadalira kwambiri magulu awiri a zinthu. Choyamba, ndi, monga, mphamvu ya ruble lapansi. Izo zimatengera zinthu mu chuma Russian ndi njira ndale. Chachiwiri - dola ndi ndalama za maiko ena padziko (makamaka yuro), kulosera za makhalidwe amene savuta. Choncho, akatswiri akulangizidwa osewera msika kukhulupirira kwambiri Zoneneratu yaitali khalidwe la banknotes la America.