Kodi n'chiyani chidzachitikire mafuta: Zoneneratu

Funso la zimene zidzachitikira zinthu mafuta anthu ambiri alionse padziko lonse. Kuchuluka chidwi mu mapangidwe mitengo "golide wakuda" idzafotokoza chikoka zawo osati pa chuma cha m'mayiko ambiri, komanso pa chuma cha padziko lonse wonse.

mitengo 2014

Mu theka lachiwiri la 2014 mtengo wa zipangizo anali pa msinkhu $ 110, amene mwangwiro wosakanikirana osati kwa Russia komanso m'mayiko ena exporting mafuta. Russia bajeti kudzadza chifukwa cha zinthu wolimba wa mafuta kubala waukulu makampani, makamaka, monga "Gazprom". Mafuta linatuluka mtengo mpaka m'ma chilimwe 2014 ndipo anafika pachimake pa kuzungulira 115 dollars. Nkhani yofanana analipo mu USA, maiko OPEC ndi m'mayiko ena ku Ulaya. Ndi chilimwe 2014 ndi mapeto a December dziko lonse anaonerera othamanga akuponya mitengo mafuta, amene anafika mlingo wa $ 60. Pofika kumapeto kwa dzinja izo zinajambulidwa Mipikisano chaka mtendere pa kuzungulira $ 48. Pa nthawi imeneyo, akatswiri ngakhale dziko sindikanakhoza kunena motsimikiza mbali ya zomwe zidzachitike mafuta posachedwapa, kuyambira maulosi onse pamaso, zinali pafupifupi mwathunthu cholakwika.

Zinthu zimene Zimachititsa dontho la mafuta, ndi zochita zawo tsopano

Kuyesa kulosera za m'tsogolo, akatswiri ambiri amaipidwa ku zinthu zimene, maganizo awo, zachititsa kuti kugwa mitengo. Mukhoza kulankhula za mfundo zotsatirazi:

• Kuchepetsa mlingo wa kukula kwa zachuma. The EU ndi China kuti ndayima kaye mu chitukuko, Japan ndi ku mavuto a. limati makampani amafuna zochepa mafuta, imbaenda apululuke akumufuna. A wambirimbiri mafuta ndi kupanda chidwi kwa iye kungothandiza kugwa mitengo. Akatswiri kulosera kuwongolera pang'ono vutoli mapeto a 2015.
• OPEC, kuyambira September 2014, kwambiri anawonjezeranso kukweza kwa amapangidwa nkhuni mlingo wa migolo miliyoni 30.5. Saudi Arabia mwalamulo analengeza kuti akufuna kuti kuchepetsa quotas "golide wakuda", ngakhale kuti mtengo wake pa dziko msika adzakhala madola 20 okha.
• Kukula kwa mafuta kupanga mu United States msinkhu migolo miliyoni 8,9.
• More mpikisano wakhala maziko a kuchotsera pa kugula mafuta. Akangana lolimba kwa ogula 2015, kutaya mu mtengo anavomera m'mayiko monga Qatar ndi Iran, Saudi Arabia.
• Cacikulu kufunika kwa chimasanduka yafupika chifukwa cha chitukuko Europe matekinoloje mphamvu yopulumutsa. Masiku m'zaka zikubwerazi sizidzasintha.

Ngati tikambirana zinthu zonse palimodzi, ndiye iwo kuti pofika cha 2015 zinthu pa msika dziko sindibwereranso pamzere olondola mafuta. Akatswiri ambiri zikusonyeza kukula mtengo wa mafuta ku mlingo wa $ 75. Mu msika wa 5 May 2015 izo anakonza mtengo pa $ 70.

Mtengo wa mafuta mu 2015, kutenga nkhani zosankha za maboma

Akatswiri ambiri, kuyesera kuti apange kuneneratu za zimene zidzachitika kwa mafuta chaka chino, amaipidwa chokhazikika pa zochita maboma a mayiko gulu msika mafuta dziko. bajeti Saudi anali wasenza kutenga nkhani chakuti mtengo wa mbiya ya mafuta sangagwere poyerekeza mu 2014. Chifukwa cha zimenezi, akatswiri ambiri kubetcherana kuti mafuta a 2015 lonse malonda pa $ 99. Pambuyo msika kugwa a bajeti dziko wakhala kwathunthu amasintha. pamtengo anapangidwa pa $ 60 pa mbiya ya mafuta. Field ya buku boma la ndalama anayamba kuoneka linaneneratu kuti mu 2015th mtengo wa mafuta sadzakhala upambana mlingo mtengo wa $ 65. Izi kumanga ku Saudi Arabia chifukwa chakuti boma ndi mtsogoleri wa cartel otchedwa OPEC.

Zimene zinanenedwa pa msonkhano wa mayiko mu April 2015?

Mu April 2015, m'dera la Texas ndinkakhala nalo ndi msonkhano wa mayiko osiyanasiyana, imene nkhani Chikukambidwa zokhudzana ndi mafuta. M'mawu ake, mutu wa "Lukoil" kampani analiza mawu zoti mitengo mafuta sadzakhalanso kukwawa pansi. Wabizinesi Vagit Alekperov analozera mfundo ya kupezana ndi kuswa mitengo pa mtendere mbiri, ndiwo mwachindunji zimasonyeza kupitiriza chodziwikiratu cha zimene zikuchitika. Malinga Goldman Sachs katswiri Jeff Currie, mu zoyambirira za 2015 mitengo anapita chifukwa buku la Zoneneratu choipa kotala chachitatu cha 2015. The prerequisites chodabwitsa ananena kuti kuwuka lakuthwa kwambiri mu dollar US. Jeff tikunena chakuti zinthu ali okhazikika pang'ono. Mu maganizo ake anavomera kwathunthu Juha Kahenyan, anali wachiwiri wotsogolera wa magawano IMF ku Asia ndi Middle East. Onse akatswiri timakonda nyamuka mopitirira mu mitengo, amene analosera ndi IMF. Kumbukirani kuti mochedwa August 2014 akatswiri lolunjika pa mtengo wa mafuta ndi mapeto a 2015 mu osiyanasiyana $ 99.

Mbali yachiwiri ya ndalama

Poganizira funso la chomwe chidzachitike ndi mafuta mtsogolomo, kuti sakugwirizana ndi maganizo Kahenyana ndi Kerry, ndipo refutes wa IMF Mapa Aydar Kozybaev, woimira Bank National a Kazakhstan. Iye ananena kuti mafuta dziko sadzatha kukhala pa kuzungulira US $ 99 posachedwapa Komanso, zilibe angafike motere. Economist amadalira $ 85 pa mbiya ya Brent mafuta ndi madola 75 pa mbiya pa mafuta WITI. maganizo awo katswiri zochokera mphamvu pa zinthu mu Russia, Azerbaijan ndi Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan ndi Turkmenistan, amene yoti States. Oversupply mafuta kwachititsa kugwa mitengo ndi masika ziziyenda zinthu zingapo matanthauzo choperekera kubwezeretsedwa kwa mlingo mtengo. M'tsogolo, azimuth kudzapitirira, ngakhale kuti chaka 2014 pazipita (105 - 110 madola pa mbiya) ndipo sangathe kukwaniritsa.

Ambiri Zoneneratu mantha mu 2014: msika ndi bajeti boma

Ngakhale mu 2014, madokotala ananena zawo yoopsa kwambiri kuti imatengedwa akatswiri ochepa padziko lonse, kuphatikizapo Russia, anali kuti, malinga ndi zimene zilembedwe za mafuta adzaleka kwa mlingo wa $ 60. Nthawi zambiri, akatswiri amavomereza ndi mtengo wa "golide wakuda" mu 2015 pa $ 90. Sakhala ndi nkhawa sewero adzatenge kuchepetsa wa Urals mafuta kuti madola 91 mu 2015 ndi $ 90 pa 2016 - 2017. Mwina, ayenera kukhala ndi kuchepetsa GDP mu 2015 ku mlingo wa 0,6% ndi kuchira kwa mlingo wa 1.7 - 2.8% kale mu 2016 - 2017. Kuwonjezera pamenepo, mkhalidwe zinachitika Ndipotu (kugwa m'munsimu $ 49 mbiya mu January), dziko lonse pamwepo. Msika mafuta zinthu mwa njila sizimadziwika.

Kodi kuyang'ana choonadi?

Zoneneratu onse panopa akutha kupereka akatswiri zimasiyanasiyana, kuchokera tisafooke kwambiri ndi maganizo. OPEC mayiko, zomwe sakufuna kuchepetsa quotas ya mafuta, kuganizira sewero ndi kugwa mu mtengo $ 20, ngati kunena kuti imeneyi sadzasintha machenjerero awo. IMF chidaliro ponena za tsogolo ndiponso kukhulupirira kuti pofika cha 2015, zolemba mafuta adzasangalala makhalidwe osiyanasiyana 90 - 99 dollars. Ambiri msika gulu chabe kuwunika zinthu ndi kupewa kusankha zinthu zofunika. Tikhoza kunena kuti choonadi lili kwinakwake pakati, ndipo umboni ndi zinthu pa msika lero. Ngakhale kuti mafuta kupanga maiko osiyanasiyana m'mbuyomu 3 - 4 months sanasinthe, mtengo wa mafuta ali angaimbidwenso kutali pang'ono. Choncho, ngati m'ma June 2015, Brent ndi pa mlingo pafupi madola 65 pa mbiya, ngakhale kuti ayese mlingo wa $ 70 pa mbiya.

Ziwerengero ndi miyezi mu 2015

Choncho, kodi kupita patsogolo mafuta msika? Mwa kuphunzira zinthu achikhazikitso, akatswiri ambiri amanena za chimodzi ndi chomwecho. Mafuta zogulitsa kunja m'mayiko ambiri sizinasinthe mpaka kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2015, amene amapereka zifukwa zabwino kulankhula za mfundo zotsatirazi:

• Kumayambiriro June, mtengo wa mafuta pakuchitika $ 66 kumapeto kwa mwezi isiya pa mbiri ya madola 69. Muno munthu pazipita $ 76 osachepera $ 60. Kwa masabata awiri oyambirira a June n'zofanana nsonga sizinachitike zimatheka.
• Mu July zanyengo kwambiri zingamuthandize. Tsikuli lidzayamba pa kuzungulira $ 69 adzatha ndi mtengo wa $ 72. The pazipita ndi osachepera adzakhala misinkhu ya madola 77 ndi madola 61. Wapakati mtengo - $ 71.
• Kuchokera September mpaka December mtengo osiyanasiyana, ngakhale kuti mafuta kupanga ndi mayiko akhoza adagawanso chifukwa chitukuko cha miyala ya chuma mu Russian Arctic ndi ntchito revitalization mu US, adzakhala osiyanasiyana monga madola 55 madola 77.

akuyembekezera dziko msika mu 2016 Kodi - 2017 zaka?

M'malo mokhala vuto m'khola dziko samaletsa yaikulu akatswiri padziko lonse, kuphatikizapo akuluakulu a kampani ya "Gazprom", mafuta ndi kayendedwe yake anawona osati posachedwapa, koma pamapeto pake. Poyerekeza maulosi angapo, tikhoza kunena kuti pa 2016 msika zoopsa imagwera sadzatero. M'malo mwake, zinthu adzapitiriza kusintha. Akatswiri amalangiza kuyambira otsika a $ 68 mu January ndi kudalira munthu pazipita $ 105 mu December. Mu 2017, zinthu sizidzasintha. Mu March, April ndi May akhoza kusanduka madola 63 pa mbiya, ndi kuchepetsa china madola 102 mu June.

The Mapa zaposachedwapa ndi unduna wa Development Economic la Russia

Utumiki wa Development Economic la Russia wayikidwa kutha kwa mitengo mafuta mu 2016 ndi 10%. The Mapa kuzisiya zikusonyeza mtengo wa $ 50 ndi mapeto a 2015. Mabuku kubwezeretsedwa kwa mtengo osiyanasiyana chilimwe 2014 chikuyembekezeka mu 2018, koma osati kale. Information choyenera inali kuperekedwa kwa April anthu 10, 2015, ndi paneer kusintha ake ndi wamakono, anatengera kwa zinthu posachedwapa. malangizo amene mtengo wa mafuta adzapita, chuma dziko kalasi akhoza amalowerera chizindikiro pa nthawi iliyonse, makamaka ngati ife kuganizira kusokonekera kwa magawo a msika mafuta lonse. Khulupirikani kwa munthu wa maganizo mwalamulo lofalitsidwa Sikuti, kuyambira zochitika zimene zingachitike mu dziko, kukonza zinthu ndi chidwi. makampani akuluakulu padziko lonse mafuta monga "Gazprom", mafuta sangathe kutumiza m'njira yoyenera. Imangokhala yokha kutsatira zochitika mu dziko. N'kuwatengera ku nkhani, mukhoza kumlingo kufotokoza kodi kupangidwa mawu mafuta.