Mitengo zikuluzikulu mabanki Russian. Mlingo chifungulo cha Bank ku Central Akuluakulu a ku Russia

zachuma mayiko ambiri a dziko zimadalira m'mene bwino lamulo Bank wa Central. Chimodzi cha zida chachikulu ntchito m'mayiko osiyanasiyana a Bank ku Central - mlingo kiyi.

Russian Bank chapakati anali nazonso. Koma mu mchitidwe ntchito yake, iye anayambitsa akuti ndi posachedwapa, m'malo mwake kwa zaka zambiri, mawu akuti "mlingo refinancing." Mlingo kiyi wakhala mmodzi wa owongolera chachikulu cha chuma lidzasinthidwa nkhani ya mtsutso pakati akatswiri a zachuma a msika. Pali akatswiri amene amaona chida kuti, m'mayiko otukuka, ndikuzindikiritsa zamoyo zina zazikulu za lamulo zazikulu za citukuko, kulola kuti kuika zinthu zofunika patsogolo yosamalira chuma cha boma. Kodi izi ndi zoona? Choncho pali kwambiri zotchulidwa udindo katswiri wa mlingo chifungulo cha Bank ku Central? Mwina palimodzi achabechabe chithunzi ntchito ndi akuluakulu okha zifukwa zodzikhululukira?

Mlingo chifungulo cha Bank ku Central - Ndi chiyani icho?

mitengo Ofunika - ndi mfundo zimene akuluakulu mabungwe a zachuma (makamaka boma akumeneko mabanki chapakati) mayiko atsimikiziridwa ngongole (madipoziti) wosindikiza mabanki payekha. Ali ndi n'loonadi ena. chida ichi ndalama zimathandiza inu ndi zimakhudza mwachindunji kufufuma, komanso dziko ntchito ndalama.

Mwachitsanzo, chinsinsi auka CBR mlingo, ndiye, zitatha izo, monga ena chuma, kuwuka mu mtengo kumachitika ruble ndi dola ndi yuro, limodzi ndi kuchepa mu kufufuma.

Kusiyana kwa mlingo refinancing

Mu kugwa kwa 2013, akatswiri ambiri anaona luso malamulo a Bank ku Central la Russia: mlingo refinancing watha kukhala chizindikiro chachikulu cha njira za bungwe ndalama. Bank ku Central watsimikiza kuti chizindikiro zofunika kwambiri chuma - otchedwa mlingo kiyi. Malinga ndi iye, banki chapakati amapereka liquidity mu nthawi mlungu umodzi. Mlingo refinancing ndi mlingo kiyi - sizili zofanana, koma oyamba Bank ku Central zimafika kwathunthu - udzapitirizabe ntchito mpaka 2016.

Ndi nthawi phindu lake adzakhala agwirizane ndi index kwa wachiwiri. Akatswiri ena mabanki ndikukhulupirira kuti mfundo ngati za Bank ku Central ndi zachilendo: mlungu uliwonse repo amagulitsa nsombazo - wotchuka kwambiri chuma dziko, ndiponso kuti mlingo kiyi angakuthandizeni kudziwa mtengo lenileni la ndalama chitaya pa sheya msika. Pamene mlingo refinancing, ofufuza anati, anali kwakukulukulu zimasonyeza.

Taylor ulamuliro pa chuma Russian

mitengo zofunikira zili bwino chitsanzo cha zizindikiro chuma, ntchito pa otchedwa Taylor ulamuliro. Chimakhudza ochuluka a Bank chapakati kumayiko ena, kupanga ziwawa chidwi. Dongosolo Taylor, pali zizindikiro zitatu: kufufuma, kukula zachuma ndi, monga mitengo amenewa. N'zosavuta zokwanira kuwerengera phindu akadakwanitsira ya aliyense wa iwo, wodziwa ena awiri. Mwachitsanzo, kugwa kwa 2013 Zikadakhala chilungamo mtengo wa ndalama chinsinsi 5,6-6,3%, pa maziko a GDP ndi mlingo wa kufufuma mu Russia. Iwo likukhalira kuti osunga ndalama Russian akuyandikira mfundo Western kumvetsetsa malamulo a zachuma.

Mavoti ku Europe

mitengo Ofunika, monga taonera kale, ntchito mu kachitidwe kwambiri banki mu dziko, kuphatikizapo mu Europe. mtengo umene ulipo kwambiri m'munsi kuposa mu Russia - tsopano ndi ECB ukugwira ntchito ndi makhalidwe a zosakwana 1%. Lamulo ndi Bank chapakati European lakonzedwa kusintha mkhalidwe watsopano wa chuma gawo ili la dziko. The ECB Cholinga kutenga zochita pa ngongole chithandizo ndi mabungwe ena azachuma ku Ulaya ndi ku EU makamaka.

Akatswiri dziwani kuti nthawi zina pangakhale zoipa chiyanjo mitengo - izo kungatithandize zabwino kukongoza. Banks, ndi kupeza ngongole wotchipa, iwo akhoza nayenso, ntchito chiphaso cha ndalama kuchokera borrowers dziko - anthu ndi mabungwe amene azidzalamulira amathandiza kuchepetsa ntchito ndiponso yotithandiza kukula zachuma. Mwa zotsatira zoipa oyamba a mitengo zoipa chidwi taonera zotsatirazi: pali mwayi kuti mlingo weniweni wa kubweranso kwa madipoziti banki nzika mwina kuchepetsedwa.

Mlingo zikuluzikulu Russia

The CBR mlingo chinsinsi, komanso mu Europe - mmodzi wa zida za chikoka pa chuma cha dziko. banki zolimbana mchitidwe mu Russia amadziwa pamene mtengo wake anali ziwonjezeke kwa magawo angapo mfundo. Mwachitsanzo, pa mapeto a April 2014 bodi a Bank ku Central anaganiza mlingo kiyi chidwi 7% kuti 7.5%. Sitepe ndi banki chapakati anafotokoza kuti zoyembezereka wosinthika mwa kufufuma. Ngati miyezi ingapo patsogolo chandamale mlingo wake anali padziko 5% pofika cha 2014, kuti pa nthawi ya kusintha mlingo chifungulo cha zoyembezereka Bank chapakati akhala mwanjira yina bwino.

Zinthu kusintha Zoneneratu awo, banki chapakati otchedwa ochepa: mphamvu ya ruble kusinthitsa ndalama, komanso zinthu akumane m'bwalo lina kwa magulu mankhwala ena. Akatswiri amanena kuti banki chapakati m'njira otchedwa concessional refinance pamene ngongole ndi ngongole ndi mabungwe ena azachuma pa mtengo wotsika kuposa mlingo kiyi chidwi ya CBR.

Zifukwa kutsitsa mtengo kiyi

Maganizo mwa akatswiri, ponena mfundo Bank a Russian chapakati ndi nkhani mitengo chinsinsi wogawanika. Pali mbali ya nkhani yolembedwa kufunika phindu la chida ichi zolimbana kuchepetsa. Mtsutso wawo waukulu zachokera chakuti slowdown mu mavuto azachuma dziko ndi apamwamba kuposa omwe akugwirizana ndi kufufuma. Choncho, pamene Bank of auka kiyi Russia ndi mlingo, kungachititse kungasokoneze mphamvu ya GDP. Komanso kuti kuchepetsa phindu lake ndi akatswiri amakhulupirira zinthu kwambiri. Choyamba, akatswiri kunena, ndipo ngati kufufuma ndi apamwamba kuposa mfundo ankaganizira, ndi zambiri - tingathe kuti pofika kumapeto kwa chaka cha izo zopanda 6-6.5%. Izi zakhala zikuchitika zabwinobwino kwa ziwerengero Russian chuma. Ena osewera kupereka kubwalo la ndale kufikako zimachitika pakati pa boma ndi Bank ku Central ukasintha kudzera wapadera wa ngongole. Posachedwapa, ntchito yoteroyo lapelekedwa kwa Duma, ndipo malinga ndi izo atapereka malangizo Bank ku Central: mlingo kiyi sangathe anapereka kuposa 1%. Malinga ndi initiators wa bilu mfundo panopa musalole mabungwe kutenga ngongole zilipo, monga momwe zilili m'mayiko ambiri olemera.

The zifukwa kulera mlingo kiyi

Pali nthumwi wa dera Katswiri zosiyana mawonedwe - amakhulupirira kuti chinsinsi chiwongola dzanja ayenera ziwonjezeke. Mu lingaliro lawo, musayembekezere ndi ubwino kupezeka ngongole ngati otsika kuchuluka adzakhala kwenikweni ankakwanitsa makampani akuluakulu. mabizinezi Small ndi sing'anga akhoza kwambiri kudalira mtengo wa 6-8%. Zinthu ngati, akatswiri amanena, chifukwa mavuto amene bungwe pokha. Komanso, maganizo akatswiri, kwa mlingo chifungulo cha Bank ku Central - ndi chida cha mphamvu pa kufufuma, ndi kuchepa kwa mitengo yake zingatanthauze kuwasiya kulamulira.

Zoneneratu pa mlingo chifungulo cha Bank ku Central Akuluakulu a ku Russia

chuma ambiri amakhulupirira kuti Bank of Russia adzakhala kuchepetsa mlingo kiyi. Zikuoneka kuti azimuth uyu adzakhala noticeable mu theka lachiwiri la 2014 - pokhapokha, ndithudi, chuma sizimawoneka mavuto mwadzidzidzi. Akuluakulu kuyembekezera kuti kufufuma pang'onopang'ono mayendedwe (ndi chinthu ichi ndiye - imodzi yaikulu mu ndondomeko ya kudziŵa mfundo za Bank chapakati mlingo kiyi), ruble wakhala okhazikika, kusowa kwa madipoziti mu ndalama national kwambiri. Komanso, Chofunika, kuyembekezeredwa kukolola tirigu.

Choncho, akatswiri amakhulupirira, malamulo atsopano a Bank ku Central mwina wowawa kuposa cholinga chofunika ndi msika. Akatswiri ena amakhulupirira kuti mawu a Bank ku Central kuti mlingo ayenera chinawonjezeka, kungakhale monga kuyesa zithetsedwe mphekesera kufufuma. Koma zoona zake n'zakuti, Bank ku Central palibe chifukwa choyembekezera kuti ukuwonjezeka mtengo, koma m'malo mwake, iwo adzakhala kukonzedwa kunsi. Mogwirizana ndi izi, optimists kukhulupirira akatswiri, mlingo kiyi mu 2014 osati kukumana kusinthasintha kwambiri oposa: ndi mochuluka ayenera kuti Bank of Russia angakonde kuchepetsa kwambiri.

Chinthu andale

Akatswiri ena a gawo la banki amanena kuti zochita za Bank ku Central kumakhudza asapita chinthu pakati Russia ndi limati zina. Pankhani ya nkhani akumane m'bwalolo mfundo lina kufooketsa ruble, ndi mitu adzachotsedwa dziko. Kufufuma kwambiri. Koma ngati mgwirizano wa mayiko adzatsala kokhazikika (imodzi muyezo waukulu umene ndi sanali kulowelera mu zochitika za Russia mu Ukraine), tili ndi zifukwa kuyembekezera kukhala mlingo chifungulo cha Bank ku Central pa mfundo panopa.

Akatswiri amanena kuti athandize kukhala mu maganizo awo, slowdown makolo mu kufufuma M'miyezi ya chilimwe. Iwo akuyembekezera kuti Bank ku Central, powona kuti mitengo musati kukula, sikungathetseretu kayendedwe iliyonse mwadzidzidzi malamulo mlingo kiyi. Pa nthawi yomweyo, amalimbikitsa maganizo amenewa amanena kuti banki chapakati adakali ndi kuchepetsa mlingo mpaka ku mlingo wa 5.5%. Ngakhale mpaka kalekale.