Pamene mtengo mafuta adzauka Mapa

Cha mma 1990, makampani Russian wakhala pafupifupi kuwonongedwa ndi ndiwo ndalama bajeti dziko linali mafuta. Zimenezi Akatswiri yaitali amatchedwa "mafuta singano", modalira kugulitsa zipangizo zimatipanga ife timalephera. M'zaka zaposachedwapa, tili wabwino ankaona. Mavuto zachuma ndi ndale zinachititsa kuti akuponya mitengo mafuta, ndipo aliyense wa ife zozizwa: pamene mtengo mafuta adzauka?

Kodi msika

Choyamba, tiyeni muyankhe funso ili: Kodi Mzimuyo mtengo wa mafuta? Mtengo wa mankhwala aliwonse zimadalira okwanira ndi akumufuna. Ngati mankhwala chofunika zochepa ndipo anapanga lalikulu, mtengo wake n'kogwiritsa kugwa - ayenera mwanjira kutaya katundu. Mafuta ntchito yopanga, kotero kufunika kwa izo zimatengera boma ambiri a zachuma padziko lonse. M'zaka zaposachedwapa pakhala osati amasiya, ndi dontho mu mlingo wa makampani, amafuna zochepa mafuta, ndipo amapereka osati sanagwe - chinakula chifukwa cha mfundo Saudi Arabia ndi. Wonjezerani kuposa anthu, kotero mtengo wagwa. Zingatanthauze kuti yankho ku funso la pakumuka kwa mtengo wa mafuta, ndi lophweka: pamene kupanga chidzakula. Koma pali zinthu zina.

masewera lachinsinsi logwira

Mtengo wa chimasanduka zimadalira malamulo. Ndi palibe chinsinsi kuti West wakhala anayang'ana ndi nsanje pa chuma yaikulu kwambiri Russia ndipo kwa nthawi yaitali ntchito pa chifooke dziko kuti n'zotheka kudula chidutswa cha mkate. Otchedwa "mafuta singano" ndi mfundo anafooka kwa Russian, kotero West waganiza kugunda pa hydrocarbon msika. Kodi mafuta kusiya? Poyamba, chiwerengero cha ulimi wake ndi mitengo anali malamulo ndi gulu wapadera - OPEC. Komabe, zaka zingapo zapitazo, dongosolo ndi "mtima wosweka." Saudi Arabia ndi United States kwambiri kuchuluka kupanga mabuku awo, kufunika wakula. cholinga ndi losavuta - kugwila msika mothandizidwa ndi kukhuthula. Padziko nthawi yomweyo, mavuto anayamba chuma cha China ndi Ukraine, zimene zinachititsa kuti dontho zikufunika kwambiri. Tsopano yankho la funso liti mtengo mafuta adzauka, anawonjezera:

1. Pamene mayiko a OPEC, kugwirizana pakati pawo, podziwa kuti kugwa mu mitengo chofunika walondolera aliyense.
2. Pamene chuma cha padziko lonse adzapita kuonjezera (pali chiyembekezo makamaka China).

katundu juga

Pa mtengo wa mafuta bwanji ziyembekezo. zipangizo zonse yaiwisi kudutsa katundu wamalonda ndi, monga akatswiri amakhulupirira mitengo ndi zotengera malingaliridwe kwambiri. Ngati inu mwadzidzidzi anadutsa mphekesera Saudi Arabia kusankha kudula kupanga, ndipo ngati osewera msika mukukhulupirira izo, iwo amayamba kugula lalikulu zedi mafuta mu chiyembekezo cha wokwera. Chifukwa ankafuna izi chongopeka analenga ndi mtengo kwenikweni akuyamba kukula. Koma ngati osewera anapidziwadi kuti vuto si bwino, iwo safuna kuyesera kuchepetsa kugula zipangizo. Monga mukuonera, ambiri "ifs" kunena mafuta kuti adzauka pa mtengo, amene mtengo Mapa ayenera kuganizira chiwerengero chachikulu cha zinthu.

kutulukira zinthu zatsopano

Science, nayenso, sindingakhoze kukuuzani ngati mtengo mafuta adzauka. Asayansi ngakhale kuti kuuzidwa zimene nkhokwe zake pa dziko! Komabe makamaka kubwera nkhani zina chitukuko mphamvu: chimagwiritsidwa ntchito mphepo ndi dzuwa, anayamba njira kutulutsa mafuta mafuta, ndiponso magetsi - kuchokera decomposing zinyalala. Pamene mlingo wa chitukuko cha matekinoloje ndi otsika, iwo amatha zosaposa 20-30% ya magetsi dziko, koma a sayansi lekani. Pamene asayansi adzapanga yojambula, ndipo ngati NDIDZAKHALA n'zosatheka kunena.

Tisaiwale za mphamvu za nyukiliya. Mu 2010, iwo anataya malo ake amphamvu, koma m'mayiko yaikulu nyukiliya zomera ulamuliro zonse kutha kupereka mphamvu zambiri wotchipa. Zimenezi si wokangalika, chifukwa mphamvu za nyukiliya zoopsa kwambiri, koma ntchito kuti mupeze zochita osachepera yowopsa akutsatiridwa mosalekeza.

Kodi mungayembekezere mapulezidenti ndi

Mungapeze zosiyanasiyana Katswiri Komatu palibe amene anganene chimodzimodzi pamene mtengo mafuta adzauka. Ambiri amanena kuti mu 2016, mtengo wake an'dzamuka 100, kapenanso $ 150, koma kunapezeka mosiyana. World ndale lero ndi chabe sizimadziwika. Chitsanzo losavuta: pamene ziletso ndi Russia, amene akatswiri chimodzimodzi kuti chuma dziko azidzakhala kuyamba. Koma zinthu sizinayende: Europe anavutika kwambiri monga mlingo wa wolowa wake anagwa. Kwa Russia, ndi ziletso akhala kutsogolera kwa vuto la zachuma. Today tikulalikira kusintha chidwi mu ndondomeko achilendo ndi zoweta m'mayiko ambiri. Mu US ndi Europe Ndipotu pali kulimbana pakati pa maphunziro awiri: mu co-ntchito ndi Russia ndi kulimbana ndi iye. Zotsatira zake za nkhondo imeneyi zidzakhala bwino pamene mtengo mafuta adzauka.

Vuto wosatha wa Middle East

Mu nkhani ina, njira feduro tsopano kawirikawiri kumva za zinthu ku Iran, lomwe ndi zachilendo kwambiri, chifukwa cha chuma chake chimadaliranso pamene mtengo mafuta adzauka. Popeza dziko lino zaposachedwapa ananyamula embargo, ndiko kuti, tsopano akhoza kuthira mafuta pa msika. Kumene, makampani kuchira zitenga kanthawi, kuphatikiza si bwino udindo kodi Iran. Komano - izo pang'ono ndi pang'ono kuwongolera zinthu ku Syria. Amadziwika kuti zigawenga zikukangalika ochita malonda ndi zipangizo, kwambiri saganizira mtengo, monga ntchitoyi oletsedwa. Malinga Iran kusankha kuthandiza Russian ndi gulu loletsedwa LIH zikadzawonongedwa, tinganene kuti nthawi imene mtengo mafuta adzauka kwa $ 80, basi kuzungulira ngodya.

Policy Russia

Tikumbukenso kuti ambiri akuyesetsa Western kufooketsa Russia anakomoka chifukwa cha khalidwe kulemba za boma Russian. Kumbali ya mitengo zopangira kugwa, tapeza misika yatsopano, kuti kwambiri bwino kugona ndi mayiko a East, ndipo ena, ngakhale kuti mayiko chofunika kwambiri ku Ulaya. Coalition a ku Asia, umene umaphatikizapo Russia, pang'ono ndi pang'ono adzalimbikitsidwa mwina posachedwapa izo adzatha kulimbana ndi West. Mkati mwa malamulo a m'dziko lathu amasintha kwambiri, koma iwo ali ang'onoang'ono. Pali kukula ndithu pa ulimi, ntchito yofuna kuthandiza entrepreneurship, koma ndalama kwambiri makampani olemera ndi mafuta kuyenga, amene adzatentha wambirimbiri zopangira si anati. Komabe, pa lonse chuma Russian amakhala wolimba, Izi zidzapangitsa, ngati si ndi kuwonjezeka mu mitengo hydrocarbon, ndiye osachepera kuchepetsa kudalira pa iwo.

Yesani kulosera

Kodi muyenera kuchita kuti mitengo mafuta kuchuluka? Inde, monga kupitiriza anakoloweka lero. Mwina tikhoza kunena kuti ngati mayiko Western musatengere maganizo ena osayembekezereka zochita odzipha, mtengo wa mafuta adzapitiriza kukula, ngakhale pa ziwawa. Weruzani nokha:

1. chuma Saudi Arabia ali kwambiri anakhudzidwa ndi mitengo kukhuthula.
2. Iran ndi Syria, akhoza kumbali ya Russia, monga kale West anawatsogolera kutha.
3. mayiko a ku Ulaya akufunafuna njira kuthetsa mavuto ndi kumanga chuma.
4. China nthawizonse wakhala wotchuka chifukwa chake "zozizwitsa zachuma", kuphatikiza iye kuchotsedwa zofunikila pa kubadwa kwa ana. Iwo akhoza kuganiza kuti kukula kwa chiwerengero cha anthu, ngati sanakweze chuma cha dziko, ndiye osachepera musataye kuti amagwa m'munsi.
5. M'zigawo za mafuta shale wakhala kampani n'ngwokayikitsa mu USA, ndipo tikuona lero, pamene mlingo amagwa.
6. ku Asia ayamba mgwirizano yogwira ndi kufunafuna njira ya kuthetsa popanda kugwiritsa ntchito dola.
7. Chuma Russian wakhala reorientation, ngakhale kuti anali adakali ofooka, makampani kuwala ndi ulimi.
8. mphamvu zina pamene akulephera kwathunthu zosoŵa za mafakitale lonse.

Ndipo komabe, mwina popanda kuganizira chochita kuti mafuta adakwera momwe lichotse "mafuta singano". Kaya Zoneneratu ndi mtengo wa zipangizo, kudalira pa izo nthawizonse kudzapanga chuma athu ofooka ndi wosakhazikika, kotero chinthu chachikulu lero - osati mafuta, ndi onse chonse chitukuko cha malonda komanso ulimi.