Stagflation - ndichiyani? Maonekedwe ndi makhalidwe a stagflation

Motero, tikambirana mfundo "stagflation." Ndi chiyani icho? Chotero anaitana boma la chuma, pamene kuchepa ndipo stagnation kupanga limodzi ndi kuwuka ulova ndi kuwuka zonse mu mitengo - kufufuma. Ndiko kuti, akuti imalongosola kufufuma motsutsa likhale stagnation zachuma. M'mawu ena, stagflation anaitana mtundu indolent cha mavuto a zachuma. Zimayambitsa chachikulu cha ndondomekoyi ndi odana ndi mavuto mochulukira amene akupereka mfundo boma ndi kuphangira, imene mkulu mlingo wa mitengo nthawi ya mavuto.

Mawu amenewa kawirikawiri amagwiritsidwa ntchito lero mu macroeconomics ano. Izi chodabwitsa watsopano waoneka osati kale chifukwa cha chitukuko cyclical za chuma cha dziko ndi mapangidwe ingapezeke kubalana likulu.

tanthawuzo

Lingaliro la stagflation anali woyamba lipoti mu 1965 ku UK. Mpaka nthawi imeneyo, chuma sichikuyenda bwino nthawi zonse limodzi ndi kuchepa mu mitengo, koma, kuyambira 1960, m'mayiko osiyanasiyana, pali njira n'zosiyana, yomwe imatchedwa kuti stagflation. Kodi ndi ziti zomwe njira zimenezi, asayansi ambiri amati m'njira zosiyanasiyana. zingayambitse zotsatirazi:

1. Mphamvu mavuto.
2. Kukwera mtengo kwa katundu okhawo mu nthawi ya mavuto.
3. State ntchito anayesetsa kusintha chuma dziko.
4. General kudalirana kwa zachuma ndi kuwonongedwa protectionism.

zitsanzo stagflation

Mu zaka 1960-1980 wa stagflation anati m'mayiko ambiri olemera a Kumadzulo. Pali zitsanzo zambiri, koma wosaiwalika kwambiri Russia anali chitsanzo cha 1991-1996 a. Zinali nthawi imeneyi dziko anakumana mkulu kufufuma ndi osatekeseka kuchepa GDP. Mwachitsanzo, ndi kuchepa zachuma mu United States mu 1970. Pamene mlingo wa kufufuma m'dziko anakwana 5.5-6%, lomwe mfundo, nalongosola kuti stagflation.

Zizindikiro za stagflation

About stagflation a dongosolo zachuma adzaweruzidwa ndi muyezo zotsatirazi: kuwonjezeka ulova boma maganizo a chuma, ndondomeko kufufuma mu dziko ndi devaluation wa ndalama national mu msika lonse. Izi njira yatsopano ya mavuto mu chuma, imene ndalama zilipo alionse alibe mphamvu kugula pa mlingo wochepa, koma mtengo pang'ono ayamba.

Stagflation amakhala ndi onse zizindikiro, ndipo iwo onse abwino oletsa mmene chuma chikuyendera mu Russia - ruble yafupika mlingo wa ntchito ndi pa mlingo wochepa, pali ambiri kuchepa chuma. Pachifukwa ichi, chuma kunena za Mwina stagflation mu Russia. N'zoona kuti ofufuza amakhulupirira kuti njira tikunena pano alipo chuma m'mayiko ambiri olemera ndi, koma sizingakhale chitonthozo. Chodabwitsa stagflation, chimene icho chiri, kapena kani, zisanathe kuphunzira ndi chuma. Akukhulupirira kuti boma ofanana a zachuma amamuchititsa kutha mofulumira momwe zimachitika. Koma wina ofufuza chinthu zimagwirizana: stagflation zikuphatikizapo zotsatira okha zoipa.

Kodi zotsatira stagflation Kodi

Stagflation, monga tanenera kale, ali kungasokoneze chuma. zotsatira zake - ndi kuchepa kwa chuma ndi zikamera wa mavuto pachimake, monga kuchepetsa mlingo wa chitetezo wa nzika, ulova ndi chiopsezo cha chikhalidwe cha magulu ena a anthu, kuchepa mu GDP ndi kuchepa kwa chuma ndi ngongole.

Phillips pamapindikira

Monga Keynesian chitsanzo yosavuta chuma ikhoza kukhala kufufuma kapena ulova. Pa nthawi yomweyo, awiri sanalembedwepo ndondomeko, koma zochokera maphunziro wazotsatira imachitika mu 50-60-ntchentche., Chuma apeza zimatsimikizira kuti ubwenzi woterewu alipo. Stagflation ndi Phillips pamapindikira yang'anirani khola ndi zodziwikiratu osiyanitsidwa ubale kufufuma ndi ulova.

Kubverana magawo awiri awa inversely njila, kotero ife tikhoza kuganiza kuti pali njira ina, ndi Kubverana kwawo. Ngati Phillips pamapindikira adzakhala anakonza malo amodzi, ndiye anthu, kumasulira mmene chuma chikuyendera, musankhepo pyadidi ntchito kusintha zinthu - kuwapangitsa kapena mfundo kutipanikiza zachuma.

Kodi kupewa stagflation

Pachikhalidwe, kuti ziziyenda zinthu mu miyeso chuma ntchito malire ndi kusokonekera kwa kufunika chonse, amene zoona, si bwanji imbalances msika ntchito ndi dongosolo la ulamuliro mu msika. Pankhaniyi, mlingo wa kufufuma anayamba kukwera kale kuposa wakhala akwaniritsa ntchito zonse. Mwachitsanzo, mpheto za kufunika akaphatikiza pogwiritsa ntchito miyeso ndalama ndi zachuma anatsogolera okha anakonzeratu kusamutsidwa chuma Phillips limaoneka lokongola.

Kodi stagflation ku Russia

Chifukwa lakuthwa devaluation wa ruble m'dera Katswiri ayamba kupanga Zoneneratu sizidzasintha. Akatswiri amanena kuti kugwa sanali ngakhale mu nthawi ya mavuto azachuma padziko lonse. Choncho, ena amanena kuti Russia chinayang'ana stagflation. Kodi ndi chiyani tiyenera kupemphera kwa chuma, Takambirana kale. Palibe wabwino vutoli zachuma, Russia sabwerera monga stagflation Chili munthawi yomweyo kuchepa kwa chuma ndi kufufuma.

Malinga ndi katswiri wa

Kodi stagflation mu Russia? Kodi, ngati Russia tikupeza? Kapena kuli kopanda lotsatira pa chuma zoweta, unsubstantiated ndipo si zabwino? Choncho, ngati inu mukukhulupirira zonena za Center Sukulu Apamwamba a chuma, ndiye Russia posachedwapa vuto ili zosasangalatsa. zokhumudwitsa Zoneneratu analytics ake akatswiri kufotokoza motere. Monga amadziwika, stagflation - njira Multilaterial, imene pamagulu kudziwa sakuyendetsa ntchito mafakitale.

Kodi pali umboni kusachezera? Ngati mukukumbukira zotsatira chaka chatha, ndi Russian otsekedwa ndi muyeso wa bwino chuma pa 1.3%. Pa msonkhano wotsiriza wa Council Economic Russian Pulezidenti Putin V. V. otchulidwa chakuti mayiko angapo mu dziko zimasonyeza kukula kumeneku GDP. Ndipo ena aonapo dontho la chizindikiro ichi. Yerekezerani kusintha GDP ku Italy, kumene anaphedwa ndi 1,9%, ndipo ndinakulira ndi% 0.2 okha France. Choncho, tinganene kuti akatswiri 'Zoneneratu ndi ungrounded, ndipo si vuto ndi chuma cha Russia, monga iwo akuyesera kuti asonyeze. Koma musaiwale kuti chaka chatha mu 2012, Russia ndi kukula chuma anafika 3.4%.

stagflation tsidya lina limati kuwuka mofulumira mitengo m'dziko. Ndipo kwenikweni, malingana ndi kuwerengera, mu Russia, ogula mitengo ananyamuka ndi 6.5% pa chaka chatha. Yerekezerani: mu EU iwo ananyamuka ndi% 1 yekha. Makamaka, kuwonjezereka amphamvu a mitengo anasonyeza pa gulu chakudya mankhwala - ndi 6.2%. Ngati ife kachiwiri yerekezerani chithunzi ichi ndi deta ku European Union, ndipo uko iwo anachita ndi% 1.4 okha.

Kodi ziwerengero mu 2014

Mitengo ya mankhwala chakudya anapitiriza kukula chaka chino. Malinga ndi akatswiri, kukula adzakhala zambiri zooneka, makamaka ngati kuchuluka mtengo wa masamba, zipatso, mkaka ndi nsomba katundu, mowa ndi kutumikira kwa anthu. Malinga chotero Zoneneratu wosasangalala, zikuoneka kuti kufufuma mu dziko kwa chaka akanakhoza kuwuka kwa 6%, ndiko kuti, adzakhala 1.5% kuposa index, amene anamuika Bank wa Central.

Ambiri mwina, ndi ruble pang'onopang'ono kufooketsa ngakhale kwa nthawi yaitali. Ichi ndi chifukwa zinthu zambiri monga kuchepetsa imports, stagnation makampani opanga, kuchepa kwa ndalama mu dziko. China chirichonse, iye anawonjezera, ndipo geopolitical Kusakhazikika. Mu HSE ananena kuti pofuna kusintha zinthu izi, m'pofunika kupereka zakuya devaluation ya ndalama.

Kodi kulabadira Mbali ina yofunika ya stagflation, ndiwo mlingo wa ulova mu dziko. Posachedwapa, boma monyadira ananena kuti mlingo ulova ku Russia pa zaka khumi zapitazi anali otsika. Ndipo uyu ndithu choncho. Mu 2013, mlingo ulova anali za 5.5%. Koma chuma mu Russia kubweza kukula, kotero, ayenera kudziwa kuti kudzakhala ulova. Izo ntchito kuti pofika cha 2014 mlingo ulova zikhoza kukhala oposa 6%. Komabe, kuwonjezeka mofulumira chizindikiro ichi sayembezereka.