Chifukwa kugwa mafuta? Mtengo wa mafuta imagwera: zimayambitsa, zotsatila

Chifukwa Mafuta kugwa pa mtengo? Mfundo imeneyi ndi nkhawa akatswiri ambiri, kuyambira kukwera mtengo kwa mafuta pa msika lonse amakhudza chuma cha mayiko ambiri, makamaka Russia. Kuchokera September 2014 ku March 2015 panali mafuta yogwira kugwa. Patapita nthawi pang'ono tizigona, mtengo anabwerera pansi. Ngati tikambirana zinthu ku mawonedwe chiphunzitso, chirengedwe zokhudza gulu la exhaustible Ndikwera chaka ndi chaka. Koma chifukwa zinthu zina mtengo wa mafuta anagwa mchikakamizo cha ndale pa misika katundu.

Momwe zinthu zikusinthira

Kuti timvetse chifukwa kugwa mafuta kumathandiza ziyenera mwatsatanetsatane za vutoli pa msika. Mu June 2014 kanthu zizindikiro za vuto, ndi mtengo wa mbiya "golide wakuda" anafika chilemba cha $ 115. akatswiri ambiri anali kukhulupirira kuti kumapeto kwa 2014 mtengo lingafikire pa kuzungulira $ 110. Pa zochitika zoterozo, mosakayika ngakhale ofufuza za boma, monga mtengo wa mafuta kuchuluka kwa $ 100 anaphatikizidwa bajeti ya Russia.

Mosiyana ndi Zoneneratu lotsatira miyezi 6, msika ophunzira onse ndi kuona luso dontho yaikulu mafuta. Charts anafika zaka ziwiri osachepera ndi kusuntha molimba mtima kuti zizindikiro cha 2008. Osachepera anali atafika mu February pa kuzungulira 47.09 dollars. Ngakhale kuti mayiko OPEC monyadira ananena kuti sali owopa kuchepetsa mafuta mpaka madola 10 pa mbiya, pansi pa mlingo anati msika kupita sizinathandize. Choncho, kuyambira February 2015, wayamba kuwonjezeka n'zosiyana mu zipangizo. Today mtengo wa mbiya ya mafuta inali madola 63,69.

Zoneneratu prognoziki

Monga miyezi ingapo yapitayo kasamalidwe ndi mayiko ambiri kuti akathyole mutu wake, zododometsa funso nokha chifukwa mtengo wa mafuta kugwa. zinthu sanalonjeze chabwino chilichonse, kuyambira makoti mosalekeza kamukamu. Akatswiri amene kumvetsa vuto, nthawi zonse analimbikira kuti palibe lalikulu zimachitika.

M'nyengo yozizira 2015 panali kulankhula za kuti pa chiyambi cha chilimwe zinthu adzakhala ziziyenda. Kugwa kwa mafuta ndi 40% pachaka si ofanana ndi kugwa padziko lonse 75% pa mavuto mu 2008.

OPEC msonkhano mu kasupe oyambirira kupereka yankho tsankho kuti n'chifukwa chiyani madontho a mafuta. Ndi yosavuta: pempholo wakhala kukambapo akumufuna. Ngakhale kuti zinthu sizinali kusinthidwa mpaka msonkhano otsatira a States, amene inakonzedwa June 2015, padziko lonse msika ophunzira kusunga mayina abwino kumbuyo mitengo mafuta ndi pafupifupi 20%. Tikhoza kunena kuti mavuto mafuta ku zinthu andale pang'ono kuchepa ndi Mapa akuchuluka mu mtengo mbiya kuti madola 65 pofika cha 2015 angatchedwe weniweni.

Kodi n'chiyani chinachititsa kugwa kwa msika mafuta?

World akatswiri mafuta msika, kupenda funso la chifukwa madontho a mafuta, anazindikira kuti vutolo anakopeka ndi zinthu zosiyanasiyana. Chifukwa machulukitsidwe wa 2014 zochitika dziko andale ndi azachuma kuunikila chiyembekezo chimodzi cha kuchepetsa mawu mabvuto. Mukhoza kulankhula za chiyambi cha shale mpweya kusintha America. Popeza 2008, boma kupanga mafuta mabuku chinawonjezeka ndi mbiya 4 miliyoni patsiku. Akuti pang'ono kale anali US anali ogula waukulu "golide wakuda".

Kusintha malamulo a dziko kwachititsa osati ndi kuwonjezeka mu buku la mafuta pa msika, komanso kuchepetsa kwambiri akumufuna. Mukhoza kulankhula za ziletso pa EU oletsa Russia. Osati udindo wotsiriza mu mapangidwe zinthu unachita kubwerera kwa mafuta msika wa Libya ndi Iran.

Kugwa kwa mafuta: anadabwa kapena mfundo zabwino?

Back mu mochedwa yozizira ya 2015 kunali kosatheka kuti akutsutsa chakuti mtengo wa mafuta kugwa. Chifukwa zodabwitsazi, akatswiri anapeza m'njira zosiyanasiyana pa chitukuko cha anthu padziko lonse. Kwambiri chiphunzitso otchuka, chimene kuchepa m'mabuku - akufuna adzawathamangitsa Saudi Arabia ku United States msika. Dziko, pokhala makampani mtsogoleri, wokhoza kukhudzanso pa msika. Safuna kutaya makasitomala awo, m'malo kusunga kutsogolera Saudi Arabia adatchithisira mitengo kwa mlingo wa ndalama yopanga mafuta mu United States, amene anali limodzi ndi kutsekedwa angapo a makampani mu United States. Makamaka, Venezuela silinachirikize mnzake ndi angakonde kuchepa mu kuchepetsa ndalama yopanga.

Kodi ndi kusanthula luso makoti?

Poona mphamvu ya dongosolo, n'chifukwa chiyani mafuta akugwa, upstaged. Akatswiri chidwi kwambiri, amene adzatumizidwa kayendedwe zina.

Back mu mochedwa yozizira ya 2015, speculators lolunjika pa mlingo amphamvu thandizo unali pa mlingo wa madola 36 (mtengo mu 2008). Zinali ku naye anakonza kugula. Iwo ankayembekezera osati kukhudza, koma ndi mayeso abwino kuti mtengo wa 30 - $ 33, imbaenda ku mantha Nkosatheka. Koma sikuti wachita pang'ono mosiyana. Mtengo nditapatsidwa $ 47, kenako ananyamuka ndi kupita. Pa nthawi, pali kuthekera zabwino kukula. The Zoneneratu kwambiri zabwino amati ndi mapeto a 2015, mtengo anatseka pa $ 85 pa mbiya kapena kuposa. Ndikufuna kuti mawunikidwe mabungwe akuluakulu komanso World Bank, ngakhale uptrend kupangidwa, kuyembekezera wina zambiri kukwera kwa mafuta pansi pa madzulo a kukula kwa mfundo adalosera.

The watsopano mtundu wa msika chofunika

Ngati zaka zochepa zapitazo yankho ku funso la chifukwa mafuta akugwa, anali kupereka lophweka, koma lero ngakhale yochepa kaonedwe ndi zolakwika kwambiri. Ichi ndi chifukwa chakuti katundu weniweni wakhala 'mapepala' chuma. An achangu Mapangano malonda ndi zam'tsogolo. Mankhwala buku chakudya 5%. Mogwirizana ndi mmene zinthu zili m'dzikoli ndi chuma wofooka a m'mayiko ambiri ndi Russia mavuto, amene ndi wamphamvu kwambiri kuposa katundu mafuta, akhoza zimachitika kugwa mitengo.

chuma Resource ofotokoza za la Russia: tilinazo kuti kusintha mu mayiko mitengo chofunika msika

Kuchokera mu 1999, chuma cha Chirasha mwachangu osauka. Popeza 2003, moyo uliri ayenera Kukwera kwa mitengo ya dziko chifukwa onyamula mphamvu. zinthu zinkawayendera anathandiza kubweza nongole ndi kulenga thumba olimba. chiwerengero cha mavuto napita anaiwalika. Mu zapitazi, ntchito ndi mwayi wa lero - ndi kudalira mwachindunji pa zipangizo alephera kubwezeretsanso bajeti ya Boma zina za chuma.

Mu 2014, bajeti unapangidwa chifukwa phindu apamwamba amakumana ndi mphamvu thililiyoni 1 rubles. Sizikugwiridwa kuchepetsa ndalama ndi zinthu zina kwa rubles biliyoni 300. Ikufotokoza nkhawa boma chifukwa cha funso ili: "N'chifukwa chiyani mafuta akugwa, dollar limatuluka?".

Amene akuvutika chifukwa cha kuchepa lakuthwa mu mitengo?

Kuchepa lakuthwa mu mitengo mafuta mu dziko msika kwachititsa kusokonekera mu chuma limati chofunika-mtundu. Russia wakhala kuwala chitsanzo cha zimakhudza mwachindunji zinthu pa msika chofunika pa chuma. Pamene mafuta molimba mtima kupita ku mtendere awo, ndipo akatswiri aphunzira funso la chifukwa kufunika kugwa kwa mafuta mu dziko ankatha kuona kuwonjezeka kwa ndalama zakunja, mavuto mu gawo la banki ndi kuwonongeka lakuthwa miyezo ya moyo. Kuyenera ananena zokhudza chiopsezo devaluation wa ruble lapansi. Lero, pa mafuta mtengo rollback boma akuona woli- Komabe, mpaka yaiwisi chitsanzo zachuma sadzakhala chinabwera, zachitika yabwino oyambirira kunena.