Kodi mavuto mu Russia: Zoneneratu

Zimene zikuchitika ku Russia imakhala si njira yabwino. Ngakhale tizigona, ndi malo ndi bwino, akatswiri ndi akatswiri a zachuma lekani kukanganira za chomwe chinali kubwera funde yotsatira ya mavuto. Amalonda ndi anthu wamba kukhala mu kuyembekezera kukonza zinthu ndi nthawi imene mavuto a itha Russia. Malinga ndi nduna ya Development Economic Alekseya Ulyukaeva, zinthu adzakhala ziziyenda mu 2016. Iye ananena kuti mmalo mwa mavuto protracted adzabwera kukula yaitali zachuma. Mwatsoka, maganizo amagawidwa ayi akatswiri onse kutsogolera.

Ndi zimene zimagwiritsa olimba mu Russia mu 2016?

Ulyukayev Mapa ndi akatswiri ena pa momwe kusintha zinthu m'dzikoli ndi 2016, ali ndi kugwirizana ndi msika mafuta lonse. Malinga ndi ziwerengero kuyambirira, pofika cha 2015, a ruble ayenera ukasintha zolimbitsira ake pakati kuwuka lonse mu mtengo wa mafuta. Kufufuma ayenera kuchepetsedwa ndi mtengo wa 2-2.5%. Olimba amafunika kugwirizana ndi kuwonjezeka kukonzekera katundu ndi ndalama zolimbikitsa. Pa nthawi, malinga ndi nduna, boma la Russia ukuchitika miyeso yogwira kukopa ndalama zakunja ntchito yaikulu makampani magalimoto. Koma kuchepekedwa bajeti mu 2015, analengeza zimakwana limafanana 2.3 thililiyoni. rubles chiphunzitso. Ndipotu zonse zikuwoneka osiyana, kuti, zoona, wavala ngati mfundo chidaliro asokonekera.

"Mavuto mu Russia itha" - mawu awa amatulutsa chikayiko pa chakuti bajeti 2015 ndi bajeti kuyambirira kwa zaka zitatu anali anakhazikitsa mtengo wa mafuta pa $ 90 pa mbiya. Masiku ano, mtengo wa mafuta si nditapatsidwa madola 55. Kusowa ndalama ndi zoonekeratu, chotero, ndipo mu chaka chamawa atatu kuchepekedwa bajeti zingawonjezere, kupanga malovozmozhnym mwamsanga kugonjetsa mavutowo.

maganizo chidaliro pa zinthu

Kodi mavuto mu Russia, chuma anayamba kuona nyamuka. Zakhala, chifukwa mavuto a tili, mwatsoka, sizachilendo. Kutsata ndi kumvera mu pafupifupi onse mafakitale, nzika wapamwamba moyo wawo. Koma ndi molawirira kwambiri lero. The Zoneneratu kwambiri wosangalala, ndi Dziwani amene amanena kuti n'zosatheka kupewa mavuto mu njira ya dongosolo wamphamvu akulamulira chuma. Mavuto - yojambula mofulumira chitukuko cha precursors. Iwo ndi njira kuthetsa kusamvana. M'munsi imagwera pa dziko, ndi aluso izo idzachitikabe.

Kufanizira ndi 2008

Mu 2015, zinthu zikuchitika sali ngati izo zinali mu 1998. atagwa mofulumira ruble mu 1998 katundu yachilendo akhala mwachangu m'malo ndi mankhwala kupanga zoweta. Iwo anakhudza chitukuko mkati mwa boma kokha. Industrial kupanga zoweta wapita patsogolo moti kumatikumbutsabe zachilengedwe kuwapangitsa anali gwero mu 2000. Masiku anonso, ngakhale kugwa kwa ruble, ndi makampani zoweta ndi kupanga si adamulowetsa. Ndipo inu mukhoza kusunga zinthu kwathunthu anyamata, m'malo zitsulo. boma Sadadzipangire miyeso iliyonse yogwira kuthetsa nthawi imene basi zikusonyeza zimene adzakumane posachedwapa ndi Transitional nthawi, mapeto a mavuto mu Russia ndi m'bandakucha akuyamba, sikuthandiza.

Russia lero. Tiyembekezere zotani?

Kuyang'ana Russia lero, munthu bwino zindikirani zigawo lalikulu la vutoli:

• Kuchepa lakuthwa mafakitale.
• devaluation wa ruble lapansi.
• Mavuto mu makampani kubanki.

Kuchokera pamenepa, ndizoonekeratu kuti kunena, pamene kodi mavuto azachuma mu Russia, ndi molawirira kwambiri. Palibe amapereka chitsimikizo aliyense kuti mavuto kufalikira ku magawo ena. Anthu ambiri amati kuwonongeka kwa chuma okha zinthu zina, ngakhale Ndipotu, mafakitale anali akadali kukhuthula patsogolo mu 2012. Iwo anali pa nthawi imeneyi, Utumiki wa Development Economic zikuphatikizapo zinthu zitatu pa chitukuko cha zinthu zina mpaka 2030. Mu 2015, munthu angaone kukhazikitsa njira kwambiri negative. Wamakono la Chitaganya cha Russia wakhala si chinachitika, injini yokha ya kukula ndi chitukuko ndi kugulitsa mphamvu, ndi odekha kuchepa GDP, chifukwa cha kuyandikana kwa mavuto a. Choona chidwi ndi zochitika za boma kubwera ankadziwika mu 2013, pamene izo, popanda malonda, anatenga lachitatu zoipa zosinthika chitukuko cha chuma cha dziko.

Kodi miyeso ali boma ndi momwe zimathandiza ya mavuto?

Ochepa a akatswiri watengedwera kuyankha chimodzimodzi pamene mavuto mu Russia. The kwambiri chifukwa preconditions kwa chikuoneka pali kale ndithu nthawi yaitali. Choncho, boma lili mu 2013 anayamba mwachangu tibwereze ziphatso a mabanki ndi mabungwe ngongole. Chigamulo cha kumapeto kwa 2014, pambuyo kufalitsa nkhani za iye, zinachititsa lakuthwa outflow likulu. Anthu mwachangu anayamba mupewe madipoziti awo, kuti yekha kulimbikitsa zinthu ndi zinachititsa kuti bankirapuse mabungwe azachuma.

Mavuto ndi ziletso

Pambuyo 2014 ziletso zinali zinthu kukula. A kontrsanktsii ndi Russian Federation ndi kugwa mitengo mafuta pa dziko msika pafupifupi kwathunthu lisachitike zoyesayesa kubwezeretsa chuma dziko. Payokha, inu mukhoza kunena za ziletso zimene zinachititsa kuti mitengo apamwamba katundu. Business wakhala sangathe kugwira ntchito popanda masamba, zomwe zinachititsa kuwonjezeka mu mtengo mlingo palibe zochotsa kwa nzika avareji dziko. Kuchepetsa kufunika zinachititsa kuti kutsekedwa amakampani. Mgwilizano zinthu kunja ndi mkati kwachititsa kuchepetsa bizinesi ndi kuchepetsa kufunika mu zigawo zonse. Kodi ndi liti mavuto mu Russia oyambirira kunena kuti, chifukwa ayambe adzayamba ndi kuukitsa miyezo ya moyo wa anthu.

Kuti okhulupirira nyenyezi kuti?

Wathunso nkhani apakhungu a mavuto ndi okhulupirira nyenyezi odziwika. Pavel Globa akulimbikitsa anthu osati kuopa kusakhulupirika mu 2015. Ngakhale Zoneneratu akumane, nyenyezi lolunjika pa chakuti yuro sadzakhala oposa 100 rubles, ndi kuwonongedwa okwana zinthu zidzachitika yekha mu 2017. clairvoyants ena osati yankho ku funso liti mavuto mu Russia. maulosi ambiri amati ziyende bwino chifukwa boma ndi kusalabadira kwa America ndi Ukraine, komanso ngati izi zoona, palibe aliyense akudziwa.

Zomwe zinachititsa kuti vutoli?

Kunena ngati vutoli ndi mu Russia, ndi molawirira kwambiri. Zimenezi zichitike, izo kumafunika kuti tigwire kuwonongedwa kwa zimayambitsa vutoli. Ichi chidzakhala chinthu choyamba kwa boma moyo. Ambiri amadalira ziletso ndi America ndi ku Ulaya, ngakhale mfundo imeneyi ndipo analibe zochita lalikulu pa zochitika. Iye kungoika kungasokoneze boma la msika chuma. Kuchepetsa sanali wokhala ndalama mu gawo kupanga anakula mpikisano wa mankhwala zoweta mu msika lonse. The inflow likulu si achire mpaka dziko ndi ikuchepa. Complete kudalira malonda uphungu ikanayenera chuma chifukwa kugwa mu mitengo mafuta dziko, kubwezeretsa yomwe msinkhu m'mbuyomu mpaka palibe umboni. Kugwa kwa ruble ndi kuti mtendere wake wotchuka ndi kufanana zochotsa CBR chiwongola dzanja kwachititsa mavuto alionse. Iye anawonjezera kuti mafuta ku moto wa mkangano Russia ndi Ukraine. Palibe zimayambitsa vuto pa siteji iyi ya chitukuko cha Russia sangathe kwathunthu inathetsedwa, amene amapereka malo aakulu kuweruza nthawi yaitali asanafike mapeto a mavutowo.

Chimachitika n'chiyani?

Development kapena kuchepa kwa chuma mavuto mu Russia amadalira nzeru ziletso watsopano, amene zingachititse kuti imfa ya ulamuliro pa malonda awo ku likulu lina. Kutchinjiriza boma n'zosapeŵeka. Zisachitike adzakhala noticeable kumapeto kwa March 2015, ndipo mpaka zinthu ndi malo amodzi, ndipo amuna amalonda ndi kufufuza njira yatsopano ya chitukuko. Iwo sayenera kusintha zinthu mu msika mafuta dziko. Chifukwa mtengo kalembera wa mafuta mu $ 55, kusintha zabwino tingayembekezere. The anasiya thandizo la boma la malonda n'chofunikira kwambiri. Ngati ife tikufanizira nkhaniyi 2008, kufanana Tingaone kokha conjuncture wa mitengo mafuta msika. M'mbali zina zonse pali kusiyana, makamaka m'madera amene anthu ndi kuchepa kwa malo, banki ndi gawo kupanga. Ngakhale ziletso ndi nakweza mawu ake, ndi mafuta msika stagnation, molawirira kwambiri kuti pamene mavuto ndi mu Russia. Kafukufuku ndi kum'chitira zabwino kunena za chitukuko m'munda wa IT, kutumiza mauthenga asatayike. Popeza ochepa amene zatenga zigawo izi za chuma, kusintha lonse mpaka otsiriza patali.

The Mapa kwambiri sizikuyenda bwino

Mwa kuchuluka kwa zolosera ndipo ndi nkhani kwambiri zimene chitukuko cha zochitika mu dziko. Pali Mwina pofika kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2015, ambiri a mabungwe a zachuma a boma, kuphatikizapo kupanga chuma, mophweka kupita zinatha. Izi zidzachitika chifukwa cha kukula kwa dola ndi mlingo wa rubles 80. Mtengo wa mafuta akutsikira $ 40 mbiya. kusintha ndalama GDP anafika 10% yofiira ndi. Bank ku Central Adzakakamizika kukweza mitengo chidwi 17% kuti 37%. Motero, dziko adzakana kukongoza kwa Russia, umene chifukwa kugwa okwana boma la zachuma. Zinthu ngakhale Musalole kuganiza za pamene vutoli lidzatha pa Russia. Maulosi, ngakhale zabwino kwambiri, musati kusintha chirichonse.

Chaka chatha, Russia akugwirabe kukula GDP pa 0.5%. Chithunzi cha 4% mu 2015 mutuwo, koma ngati Tikayerekeza ndi tsogolo la mafuta dontho, ndi Mapa sizikuyenda bwino ukanakhala wopanda wina tsekwe amenewa.

Izi zidalira pa boma

Mu ziriri pano, kokha boma la Russia ndi kudziwa pamene kuthetsa mavuto mu Russia. Zoneneratu amakhala opanda, kuyambira osakhalitsa wa zinthu anatsimikiza ndi utsogoleri dziko. Mwachitsanzo, ngati Bank ku Central adzakhala kuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja miyeso yolinganizira, kuti imangokhala zosatheka, izo adzachititsa mkulu kufufuma. Pankhaniyi, ulemerero msika adzatsala sinawonongeke. The kuchepa GDP adzatha Kusunga malire a 4%. Woyenera njira kasamalidwe adzatha kutsogolera dziko mwa mavutowo ngati mtengo wa mafuta an'dzamuka madola 60. Patangotha zaka 2-3 kudzakhala kotheka ziziyenda zinthu, malinga ndalama mu chuma m'banja osachepera zankhaninkhani, 3 rubles. Kodi zoweta abatizidwe boma, palibe amene anganene.

Pamene vuto latha: Russia ndi odana ndi mavuto mfundo

Akatswiri amafuna kuti ponseponse odana ndi mavuto malamulo a boma. Mwachitsanzo, zambiri za ndalama kuti apeze chuma ndi allocated kuti mabanki kwa akubwereketsa malonda, limene, mogwirizana ndi boma, ayenera kukhazikitsa ulimi zoweta katundu. Ndi chidwi chinali chabe chakuti pansi pa 30% ngongole kwa aliyense kuti muthe, ndi mitengo ya zinthu adzatsala sinadzatengedwe ndi achibale pa mlingo uwu. Banks, pozindikira muyezo, kufika ndalama kuphana ndalama kwa zasungidwa, amene kumawonjezera yekha kukula kugunda ndi worsens zinthu. Dzitetezeni ntchito za mafuta kudalira a zachuma, amene n'komwe nthawi pamene mavutowo itha Russia. Msika dziko idzasintha, zomwe zidzakhudze boma la chuma cha dziko. Ngati inu kutsindikiza kupulumuka mavuto, mfundo imeneyi patapita kanthawi ndithu Zimachititsa zikamera wa yoweyula latsopano la mavuto.