Kugwa kwa ruble (mu 2014). Chifukwa kugwa kwa ruble ndi

Chuma Russian wagonjetsedwa wozungulira ina ya mavuto, mmodzi amene - ndi chifooke ndalama dziko ndi dola. chifukwa cha kugwa kwa ruble chiyani? Kodi izo - ndi zokhudza zonse chodabwitsa kapena zotsatira zongoganizira? ndi zotsatira zake kwa anthu wamba ndi mabizinezi chiyani?

The Mapa sizikuyenda bwino

Malinga ndi akatswiri ena, kufunika dollar a US ndi mapeto a 2014 akhoza kukula kwa 37-40 rubles (kapena kudzakhala pafupifupi dollar US kusinthitsa ndalama). Chifukwa chachikulu kwa kufooka kwa banknotes Russian otchedwa kuwonongeka kwa chuma cha dziko. Akatswiri, amene ali kumbali ya chotero madokotala ananena zawo amenewa, amakhulupirira kuti mphamvu kale otsika GDP adzagwa zina, ndi likulu - kutsika kwa dziko.

Udindo wa ruble ndi, akatswiri pessimists mukukhulupirira kuzilala osati ndi dola, komanso ena ndalama yaikulu dziko. Palinso maganizo tsopano pali nthawi ya bata wa ruble devaluation mu chuma Russian, chifukwa cha kuwonongeka kwa bwino malipiro. Akuchuluka malo a ndalama Russian, akatswiri kunena, angathandize kuti lamulo la Federal Reserve System ya USA, imene 2014 anapitiriza kuchepetsa miyeso ndalama yaikulu chuma, ndi mu 2015 kuyamba kulera mlingo refinancing.

Malinga ndi amalonda

Akatswiri mu munda wa wotuluka kuwombola yachilendo imatengedwa kuti udindo wa ruble ndi dola ndi zawonjezeka kuposa ndalama za maiko ena. msika mavuto, monga ochita malonda, anali kuyesedwa, ndi dola Australia, ndi peso Argentine ndi Turkey national ndalama - ndi Lira. Onse a iwo, monga ruble - otchedwa "chofunika" ndalama. Kumapeto kwa 2014 dola, malinga ndi zimene akatswiri malonda, zikhoza ndalama 34-35 rubles, mayuro - za 45-46 mayunitsi wa ndalama Russian. Pasanathe chaka, Komabe, pangakhale kusinthasintha.

Chifukwa chachikulu kugwa kwa ruble, mukhulupirireni amalonda - mu lonse utuluke reorientation ndalama - likulu outflow m'misika akutulukira, m'dziko la Russia, ndi padera mu chuma m'mayiko otukuka. Vuto limeneli mwina okhudzidwa zaka kudza. Komabe, chifooke ndalama dziko la Chitaganya cha Russia, monga akatswiri a zachuma ndikukhulupirira, akhoza kwambiri kumva nzika: mwina mkulu wa kukula kwa mitengo ogula.

Maganizo a chilengedwe sayansi

Akatswiri ena ku chiwerengero cha chuma ndikukhulupirira kuti depreciation wa ruble pokhala protracted chikhalidwe mu 2014. Chifukwa cha chisankho cha Bank ku Central kuchepetsa kuwombola yachilendo msika lamulo akhoza akufotokozedwa. Komabe, kamodzi limakhazikitsa mlingo kuwombola, banki chapakati abwerere kufooketsa kulamulira bids. Kwambiri mu ndondomeko dziko ndalama, monga akatswiri amakhulupirira, zimadalira kutanthauzira koyenera ndi kumvetsa kukula chuma. Mwachitsanzo, kulankhula za kukula kwa chuma chenicheni pa chitsanzo cha maiko otukuka, monga asayansi, palibe malo, chifukwa pali ntchito mtengo kwambiri.

kukula yokumba kudzera kudzikundikira ndalama kusasiyana - ali, monga mwa akatswiri ena, "kuwira" kuti adzaswa kenako. Komabe, Russia, monga asayansi amati, kukula chuma akhoza kukhala chogwirika ndithu, ndipo ndi chifooke ndalama - chinthu chenicheni cha nzothandiza ake. Mu kugwa kwa ruble chinawonjezeka wolowa pamene auka ndalama phindu (koma akhoza kuchepetsa yonena za msika).

Nkhani chidaliro

Ngakhale kuchuluka kwa nkhani zoipa za ruble ndi dola ndi imakhudzira chuma Russian, pali pakati chuma kwambiri ndi chidaliro zimenezi. Pali lomwe mu 2014 ena mwa mavutowo, khalidwe la zaka zam'mbuyo, tichotse zone yuro, ndilo malonda waukulu bwenzi la Russia. Chuma cha m'mayiko ndalama nduna - yuro, mu 2014 akhoza kukula ndi oposa 1%.

Zimenezi zingachititse kuti kukula kwa Russian katundu wa zipangizo, komanso kuwonjezeka mu mtengo kwa izo. Zikakuchitikirani zimenezo, izo chidzakula, ndipo zotsala malonda la Chitaganya cha Russia, kenako pang'onopang'ono phunzirani kutulutsa likulu lina. The chifukwa adzathandiza anthu ngati ruble ndi dola. Malinga zoterezi sewero wosangalala, Russia ndi kukula GDP kumapeto kwa 2014 mwina upambana 2.5%, pamene dola kusinthitsa ndalama sadzakhala upambana 33 rubles. Choncho anapatsidwa Mapa, pamene kodi sakuyendetsa ruble mkati 2014.

retrospective

Mwa chuma pali maganizo kuti depreciation wa ruble poyerekezera ndi kutsogolera ndalama dziko - chodabwitsa latsopano ndithu ndi masoka kwathunthu kwa chuma Russian. Ngakhale ngati tilibe kuganizira mavuto 1998 , pamene Russian National Bank cholemba dollar anagwa kangapo, zokwanira kukumbukira mavuto a zachuma mu 2008-2009. Ndiye ndalama Russian kakusintha osachepera devaluation amphamvu kuposa mu 2014. Komabe, monga zochitika zimasonyeza kuti ruble zaka zingapo lotsatira, molimba ankaimba malo a dola ndi yuro.

Mukhozanso kukumbukira ndalama malonda kugwa kwa 2012 - pamene mpikisanowo anali yodziwika ndi osakhalitsa kwambiri, akatswiri ambiri analosera kugwa chayandikira cha ruble, koma izi sizinachitike. Lero, ndalama Russian wagwa mu mtengo, koma zinachokera pa zimene zinachitikira m'zaka zapitazo, ndipo sangathe kupereka nthawi kupanga imafika mfundo pa pofuna kukwaniritsa chuma cha dziko. Mu 2008-2009, chuma anali ndi zifukwa zenizeni kugwa kwa ruble lapansi. 2014 TH angasonyeze zinthu zina zokhudza ndalama Russian.

Trends m'mayiko osauka

Pali view mwa chuma kuti ruble akuchitira zinthu mu malonda ndalama padziko mofanana banknotes ndi mayiko ena osauka, makamaka m'mayiko BRICS (zomwe Udindo monga Brazil, India, Russia, China ndi South Africa, nthawizina). Popeza kuti tsopano pali lonse ndalama outflow ya ndalama yachilendo chuma izi. Kufooketsa ndalama mitundu, monga pali chifukwa chomveka kugwa - ndi ruble, zenizeni, n'chokwana kapena rand ziribe kanthu - chinthu wamba ku mayiko a gululo. Russia, motero komanso kutaya chikoka chifukwa likulu lina.

Phunzirani kutulutsa ndalama kumagwirizananso kwa Mfundo yakuti US Federal Reserve pang'onopang'ono omangika ndondomeko ya ndalama kuchepetsa issuance a madola unsecured ndi kukula chiwongola dzanja zoweta pa ngongole. Potsatira chitsanzo cha chuma otchuka dziko "kumanga malamba awo" ndi mayiko ena otukuka. Makampani kuona zikuchikazi, zinapatsira ndi chikhulupiriro chachikulu m'misika awa ndi amakonda kutumiza likulu lawo kumeneko, osati m'mayiko osauka. Chuma amanena kuti ndalama BRICS si kwambiri wofooka monga dollar cholimbitsidwa chifukwa mikhalidwe msika US.

zimayambitsa Internal chifooke ruble ndi

Kugwa ruble monga akatswiri ena amakhulupirira, ndi chifukwa kuti zinthu kunja ndi mkati. Choyamba, chifukwa yogwira Review Bank Central, Russia ziphatso kwa mabanki payekha - mu 2013 ndondomeko zinachitikadi mabungwe 20 banki ndalama. Kwambiri resonant chitsanzo - ndi kutsekedwa kwa "Master-Bank", mmodzi wa waukulu mu dziko. Kachiwiri Bank of Russia anaganiza pang'onopang'ono tiyeni tipite kwa ruble mu "ufulu akuyandama".

Chifukwa cha ichi - chilakolako kulimbikitsa chitukuko mafakitale dziko, omwe si kophweka kukhala profitability ya katundu wa. "Mwaulesi" ruble akhoza kuchepetsa mtengo wa katundu Russian ndi kupanga kupanga zoweta mpikisano kwambiri. Ena chuma amakhulupirira kuti kuchepa kwa ndalama mitundu ya Russian Federation akuluakulu yopindulitsa: ngongole anatengedwa ndi nsinga boma rubles, ndi ndalama mafuta masamu ndalama US. Ndi kukula kwa dola boma adzalandira kuposa ndalama national kulipira chidwi pa nsinga.

The zotsatira za chifooke ruble ndi

Kodi ukhoza kuwononga depreciation wa ruble chiyani? Ngakhale kuti chifooke ndalama - ichi, poyamba pa zonse, zizindikiro zazikulu za citukuko, zotsatira za zodabwitsazi akhoza kufika ndi nzika wamba. Akatswiri ena, kugwa kwa ndalama zimene dziko la Russia kungachititse kuti wokwera pa katundu (makamaka zamagetsi, magalimoto, mankhwala, zovala, komanso katundu chopangidwa, zipangizo kupanga chimene anagula kunja).

Price kukwera mu zigawo izi monga akatswiri akuti, akhoza kufika 15%. Komanso, zodula tchuthi ku Russia kunja (makamaka m'mayiko otukuka). Mitengo matikiti ndege ndi mahotela onse akuonekera makamaka madola US, ndi phindu mwadzina, ngakhale kusinthasintha ndalama, akhala zikutsatiridwa, kutanthauza kuti mtengo lenileni la ndalama kuyenda kwa kusinthika kwa ukuwonjezeka ndalama Russian. Nzika motero sangakhale chidwi ndi chodabwitsa cha kugwa Ruble. Kodi kufooka winanso wa banknotes dziko la Chitaganya cha Russia, ndi chuma kufotokoza ndithu lucidly.

Kukhuta chinthu

Monga taonera, pali chiphunzitso kuti ruble ndi dola mwachindunji zimadalira lamulo la Federal Reserve System. Tsopano bungwe ili ndalama amachepetsa pulogalamu otchedwa a "easing" pamene makina osindikizira madola chikalata unsecured. Kukhuta kumachepetsa kugula kumangidwa ndi mapangano kubweza. Utsogoleri watsopano wa Federal Reserve System amalonjeza lomanga ntchito ndi pulogalamu imeneyi. Tili bungwe ili ndalama zina pa ubwenzi ndi apolisi. Ngati zaka zapitazo Kukhuta ankakambirana Congress kufunika kuonjezera denga la ngongole anthu, koma tsopano sizimatanthauza - yamalamulo American kulandira kukonzanso denga pa mphindi iliyonse. Izi, chuma ndikukhulupirira, kumathandiza kuchepetsa mavuto a chuma US ku Federal Reserve System. Choncho, msika US ali ndi mwayi wa kukhala wolimba ndi, chifukwa, kulimbitsa dollar mu malonda mayiko ndalama.

Ubwino ndi kuipa kwa chifooke ruble ndi

Kugwa kwa ruble wa - chodabwitsa kuti sikuti ntchito pa chuma zoipa. Pali zodabwitsazi wa ubwino ndi kuipa. Mwa ubwino angatsutse - kuchuluka revenues makampani exporting ndipo monga Motero, kukula kwa ndalama msonkho kwa bajeti ya Russia. Polimbikitsidwa inatha M'MALO - mtengo wa katundu yachilendo ukuwonjezeka, ndipo yopindulitsa kwambiri kugula katundu kupanga zoweta. Imathandiza kuti kukula zachuma. Poyankha, pofuna kumvetsa zimene ukhoza kuwononga ruble dontho, tiyenera kukumbukira kuti ngongole ya dziko lina. Izi ndi ndalama kuti anthu anatenga kunja - zambiri mu dollars. Choncho, sangathe yaikulu ya chifooke ndalama Russian - kuwonjezeka katundu pa borrowers amenewa. The ngongole kunja Russia tsopano mu mazana a mabilioni a madola (malinga kuwerengetsera wa akatswiri ena kale kuposa nkhokwe mayiko a dziko). Long ndi chidwi chifooke ruble amakhala opanda pake makampani (makamaka mabanki malonda) kuti muyenera angongole yachilendo.

Zoneneratu a mabanki

Yaikulu Russian ndi achilendo mabanki ndi komanso akuyesetsa kuti aone kugwa kwa ruble ndi kulosera mphamvu tsogolo la ndalama mitundu la Russia. Tikumbukenso kuti mabungwe ngongole zakonzedwa zambiri tisafooke. Banks monga "VTB Capital", Morgan Stanley, komanso "Alfa-Bank", kuyembekezeredwa kuti pofika cha 2014 dola ndalama 35 rubles. Citi, "Apeza", "Uralsib" kuona ruble kwambiri kulimbitsa: m'mabuku a mabungwe awo adawoneka kanjedza pakati 32,3 ndi 34,5 wa Russian mayunitsi ndalama pa US banki cholemba ku mapeto a chaka. Zingapo zikuwoneka sizikuyenda bwino Mapa wa ruble ndi HSBC (35,4 pa dola), "Kubadwa Kwatsopano" (35.5). The kufooka kwambiri za ndalama Russian amaona UBS (36,5). Tikumbukenso kuti pakati pa zolosera ndi ulemu kwa mtsinje wa ruble ndi zina ndalama yaikulu dziko - yuro - ndi anaonanso kusiyana kwambiri - kuchokera 43,4 (Morgan Stanley) kuti 48,4 mayunitsi RF pa banknotes yuro (Citi).