Wald mayeso, kapena momwe kuti zotsatira zabwino kungakupatseni

Ambiri a ife sindimakonda mu mkhalidwe kumene zokhudza zinthu zina ndi laling'ono kwambiri, kapena palibe kwathunthu, chotero Akufunika kusankha zofunika. Ambiri mwina chifukwa cha ichi anthu ambiri amakonda kupewa udindo zili ndi wodzichepetsa, komabe ofesi ndi chete. Ngati ankadziwa zokhudza chiphunzitso masewera ndi phindu lanji mwina concelebrate i Wald, molapitsa, Hurwitz, savvy ntchito ambiri a iwo mwina adakwera mofulumira.

Amafuna koipa

Iwo akhoza kukhala woyamba mfundo pamwamba anafotokoza. Wald mayeso kawirikawiri amatchedwanso muyezo wotaya kwambiri kapena ulamuliro osachepera zoipa. Mu nkhani ya ndalama zochepa ndi osadalirika, osakhazikika malo n'zomveka ndithu kuti reinsurance malo, limene lakonzedwa kuti nkhani yoipa kwambiri. Maximin Wald mayeso tikunena maximizing Nkhata pokumana ndi chowawa. Chitsanzo cha ntchito zake akhoza kukhala kuwonjezeka pazipita mu ndalama yochepa kudzapeza osachepera ndalama kuchuluka ndi zina zotero. N. strategy Izi wolungama nthawi imene zochita wopanga, osati kudziwa zambiri mu bwino kwambiri, monga iye akufuna kutsimikiza okha ndi zomvetsa mosayembekezereka. Mu mawu ena, Wald mayeso amachepetsa chiopsezo yochepa ndipo amalola kuti njira kothandiza kwambiri. Chotero njira limachititsa kupeza kungakupatseni osachepera, ngakhale zotsatira leni sangakhale zoipa.

Wald mayeso: chitsanzo cha ntchito

Tiyerekeze kampani ati apange mitundu yatsopano ya mankhwala. Choncho m'pofunika kusankha pakati pa imodzi mwa njira zinayi B _1, B _2, B _3, B _4, omwe amafuna mtundu wa kumasulidwa kapena osakaniza zace. Kuyambira chisankho pamapeto pake zimadalira zimene kampani chipindulitse. Ndendende mmene zinthu msika m'tsogolo silikudziwika, koma akatswiri kuneneratu zochitika zitatu: C _1, C _2, C _3. deta amenewa amapanga tebulo mungachite zotheka Kuthana kuti afanane ndi awiri ya njira zothetsera mavuto ndi vuto mwina.

Ntchito Wald mayeso, muyenera kusankha njira yabwino, amene tidzakambirana kwa ogwira mulingo woyenera. Ifeyo chizindikiro ntchito

E = Max {25; 22; 15; 20} = 25.

Ife tiri nazo izo, kusankha aliyense mwa njira ndi chifukwa osachepera m'mene olekanitsidwa pakati pawo, amene udzalowetsa ndalama zambiri. Izi zikutanthauza kuti njira adzakhala mu olimba _1, malinga ndi muyezo ichi, opambana. Ngakhale zotsatira 25 (C ₁₎ analandira pa zinthu zambiri akumane, nthawi yomweyo n'zotheka kuti akafika 45 (C _3). Onaninso kuti muyezo Wald tikunena munthu ngati kuli kotheka ochenjera mzere wa khalidwe. Mu zochitika zina, n'zotheka kuti tizitsogoleredwa ndi tiganizira ena. Mwachitsanzo, mwina B ₃ angakubwezereninso akupeza 90 ndi chifukwa amayenda mu 15. Komabe, nkhani iyi apita singathe kwa nkhaniyi, choncho sitiganiza kuti mpaka ife tiri.