Kusakhazikika zazikulu za citukuko

Zazikulu za citukuko bata - ndi m'malo mwamwayi kuposa ulamuliro. Khalani limasonyeza kuti chuma palibe bwino. Zotsatirazi nyengo ya chitukuko ndi chitukuko akubwera nthawi ya mavuto limodzi ndi ulova. Komanso, m'zinthu zachuma ndi mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya intervals nthawi, ndi zina. Choncho, malinga ndi nthawi yomwe lalifupi, sing'anga ndi yaitali.

Short m'zinthu kuzindikiridwa Dzhozef Kitchin, zachuma British. Iye chikugwirizana ndi kusinthasintha mu nkhokwe za golide. Periodicity, amene anapereka Kitchin, ndi miyezi makumi anayi.

Wesley Mitchell, anayambitsa econometrics ankakhulupirira kuti lalifupi m'zinthu chifukwa lagona pa ndalama zolowa, ndipo anagwirizana ndi pafupipafupi m'mbuyomu.

Ndipotu, m'zinthu awa akukhudzana kupanda kusamala ogula malonda. Kusintha ngongole dera ndi chifukwa iwo, kotero iwo amaoneka mu mawonekedwe a ngongole crunch.

Mu theka lachiwiri la m'ma 19, Klement Zhuglyar, ndi zachuma French ankayendera m'zinthu pafupifupi. chifukwa awo anaona, nayenso, mu munda wa ngongole. Klement Zhuglyar kuzindikiridwa pafupipafupi m'zinthu sekondale zaka zisanu ndi zitatu khumi.

Chimodzimodzi mtundu wa m'zinthu ndi m'zinthu ndi kumanga zachulukazi ndi chizindikiro Simon Kuznets. Iye chikugwirizana ndi (zaka khumi ndi zisanu kapena makumi awiri) a nthawi Sinthani nyumba.

Long (kapena yaitali) m'zinthu kulibe chifukwa kusintha mu zomangamanga, mphamvu ndi umisiri kiyi. Apo ayi, vuto amatchedwanso Kondratiev adzizungulira, malinga ndi chiphunzitso cha dzina Russian - Nikolaya Kondrateva. Iye anaphunzira mphamvu khala kupanga zitsulo, tini, komanso mlingo pafupifupi malipiro, mitengo, malonda ena ndi zizindikiro zina mu US ndi ena Western ku Ulaya kwa zaka 140 (kuyambira zaka ziwiri zapitazi cha m'ma 18 mpaka zaka makumi awiri za m'ma 20). Kondratyev maphunziro econometric ndipo anatsimikiza kuti ambiri m'zinthu zaka 54-55, pamene kusunga akwera natsikira gawo.

Kunsi kwake pamene kusintha njira zamakono pachimake ndi nyumba zamakono chimakhala cha zaka 20 mpaka 25.

Kutuluka gawo, pamene anthu a akukumana ndi kuyanga chuma, luso ndi sayansi, chimakhala cha zaka 25 mpaka 30.

The mgwirizano mu chuma palibe zifukwa zambiri. Choyamba, kusakhazikika mu zazikulu makamaka zimadalira zinthu monga zipangizo luso kupanga. kusintha pafupipafupi imfayo kanthawi mavuto ndi kuchira, ndi iwo amene anapanga kamodzikamodzi (mwachitsanzo, kumanga milatho latsopano ndi nyumba zina), kupanga maulendo izi yaitali.

Komabe, Kusakhazikika zazikulu za citukuko amayamba osati mwa chinthu ichi. Pa vuto la periodicity wa kusinthasintha mu chuma alibe anakhalabe osayanjanitsika palibe chuma zaka 19-20. Kuyesera kumvetsa zimayambitsa zodabwitsazi, Adalenga kwambiri mfundo zosiyana. The akuluakulu anafotokoza ndi kusakhazikika kwa chuma m'njira zotsatirazi.

1. Malinga ndi chiphunzitso woyamba, zotsatira za zochita kwaiye accelerator cyclical ndi multiplier.

2. amalimbikitsa chiphunzitso cha ntchito mkombero ndale amakhulupirira kuti Kusakhazikika zazikulu za citukuko ukapezeka monga chotsatira cha amakhazikitsa malamulo m'munda wa ndalama, Bajeti, ngongole ndi misonkho.

3. zokometsera ndi chiphunzitso cha zifukwa mgwirizano ntchito mkombero kuti muziwone izo kupeta pankhani nthawi yaitali nthawi.

4. Asayansi amati bizibezi adzizungulira, amati Kusakhazikika zazikulu za citukuko kumachitika chifukwa kusintha mwadzidzidzi osiyana kumabungwe a chuma, kuti, pamene zikuchepa kusintha luso kupanga.

Mfundo zimenezi maganizo kumlingo molondola zimasonyeza zifukwa chitira Yesaya. Koma chiphunzitso ambiri amene amakhoza kuzindikira sukulu zonse zachuma, lero kulibe.