Kodi adzachititsa kuwonjezeka dola? kukula dollar: zotsatira

Popeza kuti mapeto a August 2014, dollar anayamba pang'onopang'ono apeze patsogolo. Kufanana kuchepa mtengo wa mafuta chinalembedwa. Pa nthawi imeneyo, palibe munthu anakhoza ingoganizani adzauka dola, omwe amaona msika ngati pullback lotsatira. zipolowe anayamba kukula pamene mtengo tchati anayamba mofulumira mkatikati mwa mlingo pambuyo mlingo. chodabwitsa akhoza anati popeza mapeto a August. Izo zikuchitika lero. Dola ananyamuka kwambiri ndi ndalama onse ogwidwa pa msika. The mbendera za zimene zachitika lero, zikhoza kuganiziridwa mapangidwe nsonga latsopano mu Dow Jones ndi S & P 500. akatswiri ambiri kuyambira chiyambi cha September anachenjeza kuti ndalama US akukonzekera anadabwa kwa amalonda wachikhazikitso.

Monga dola chatithandizira moyo mu Russia?

Kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo wa ndalama US, amene ankaona kwambiri madzi chofunika mu dziko, wasiya chizindikiro chake pa chuma cha dziko lililonse pa dziko. Makamaka kwambiri anatsimikizira kukula dollar mu Russia. Escalate zinthu kugwa mu mitengo mafuta. Chisangalalo mwa nzika mogwirizana ndi kugwa ruble mu zosatheka mothandizidwa ndi mabungwe a boma kwa nthawi yaitali. kulakwitsa boma anali kuti ankadalira mphamvu kudziletsa malamulo a msika. Kukula kwa ndalama zakunja, amene miyezi isanu anabwera chikulavula, zinachititsa kuwonjezeka mofulumira mu mtengo chakudya ndi mavuto malonda. Komabe, ichi ndi nsonga ya madzi oundana a. Pa mlingo boma, kukula kwa dollar wakhala chofunika kwa outflow likulu ku Russia, ndi kuchepetsa voliyumu ya imports kuti GDP kuchepa kwa phindu la 0,8%. Zikuphedwa sanali chabe ndi sing'anga-kakulidwe mabizinezi, komanso mabungwe akuluakulu, amene zochitika watsirizika Russian bajeti. Kutuluka dollar, kugwa mafuta, mpweya wa ruble ndi kuchepetsa mtengo wa mafuta kwachititsa Kuuma tima ya chuma Russian. Mu kamphindi za mavuto Bank ku Central anakweza chiwongola dzanja, zimene zinachititsa kuti boma kuchita zinthu zingapo pambuyo pa chitukuko.

Posonyeza kuti mlingo dola ya Bank kwa mayiko midzi?

Funso kodi dola, nkhawa osati Russia koma dziko lonse. Bank kwa mayiko midzi - ndi limodzi mwa mabungwe woyamba chuma cha dziko lapansi, amene anayamba akuchenjeza pa vutolo. Malinga ndi bis, ndi US ndalama kukula kungayambitse vuto la zachuma lomwe m'mayiko ambiri. Chizolowezi kulimbikitsana wina wa ndalama yaikulu ya dziko mosasintha kumabweretsa destabilization wa zinthu pa misika onse katundu. Nkhawa ikukhudzana makamaka chakuti mabungwe akuluakulu imene ikuchitikira pa maziko a chuma cha mayiko, makamaka ntchito pa maziko a ngongole mawu dollar. Alipire ndalama adzayenda mu ndalama mofanana mu njira zenizeni zolimbitsa thupi ndi mabvuto kwambiri ndipo nthawizina zosatheka. Crisis zofanana ndi zimene zinachitika mu Russia, akhoza kuwapeza mayiko koposa padziko lonse.

debentures

A dollar wamphamvu ali basi kukhala nyengo yachisanu ikupita mavuto m'mayiko osauka. Adzaweruza kodi kuwuka kwa dollar, izo zimakhala zotheka pambuyo nzeru highs latsopano.

Kamodzi dola wayamba kulimbitsa, maboma a mayiko, amene kukhala mwachangu, ayamba mofulumira kumasula ndalama US lokha kuposa kwathunthu kumana okha ka ndalama zakunja komanso kulimbikitsa nkhokwe za mabanki chapakati. Komabe, mabungwe ang'onoang'ono m'mayiko osauka m'zaka zingapo zapitazi kwambiri adakula nkhani ngongole, ndipo ndalama US. Borrowers kuti anamasulidwa chibwenzi, sheya mtengo thililiyoni 2.6 madola (3/4 mabuku ndi chipembedzo ndalama US). ngongole mtanda malire anafika pafupi $ 4 thililiyoni. Ngati lalikulu ndalama ya mayiko umayamba kuchepa ndipo chipitiliza ulendo wake, katundu ngongole makampani ambiri a dziko amangokhala unsupportable. zinthu adzakhala kuvutika ngati chiwongola dzanja mu US anafika boma mwake. Ndipo zonse izo ziri kwa izo ndipo akupita. Policy wa easing kachulukidwe yatha, ndi United States m'manja mwa pafupifupi makadi onse.

Kutuluka dollar: zabwino United States - icho chili choipa kwa chuma cha m'mayiko ena

Ngakhale dola chikukulirakulirabe, ndi chuma US zikuyenda bwino, choncho m'mayiko ena anali kutali ndi njira yabwino. Mwachitsanzo, mu Japan, kukonzanso mavuto akulamulira. Close mavuto, ambiri EU mayiko. Icho chinali pa dziko lawo la ECB ndi kuyesetsa kukonza vutolo mwa kukhazikitsa ndondomeko ambiri chithandizo. Panali ngakhale mawu boma kuti m'miyezi ikubwerayi, anakonza likulu pulogalamu ya easing kachulukidwe. Kulosera za m'tsogolo sichinafike katswiri wina Sadadzipangire. Malinga ndi ziwerengero kuyambirira, vuto posachedwapa adzakhala ofanana. Kusintha choyamba inu mudzazindikira uli chifupi ndi masika, pamene ECB adzakhala mwalamulo kulengeza bwino zizindikiro za chuma mogwirizana ndi ntchito.

Palibe chiyembekezo chidaliro

Posacedwapa, kanthu zabwino sikuthandiza kuyembekezera zinthu, makamaka anapatsidwa kukula kupitiriza ya dollar ndi zina. Zotsatira zake satanthauza ndi kuwonjezeka mu kufunika kwa ndalama komanso kusowa m'mayiko ambiri adziko lapansi. Tiyenera kuyembekezera outflow likulu ku bajeti boma. Large makampani-amangawa adzayesa ngongole, kachiwiri pobwereka ndalama pa ziwawa chidwi. Pofuna kubweza ndalama padera ndi kuti osachepera ndalama zochepa, iwo aitane lamulo kukwera mtengo wa katundu. nkhawa ndalama malonda adzakhala pa ndalama za ntchito mitengo ogwira. Anthu insolvent. Likukhalira uzingopitirira limene linanena bungwe ndi zosaoneka. Kodi Zidoni adzakhudzidwa kuwuka kwa dola, mfundo palibe amene angafotokoze, koma kuti zinthu kudzakhudza aliyense - izo ndi zoona. Zikuphedwa mu malo oyamba adzakhala boma lake mfundo umalimbana chitukuko yogwira.

Kubweranso kwa dola ngakhale theka la mtunda ulendo - ichi ndi chidaliro kwambiri, koma si zotheka pa siteji iyi Mapa.

Kodi n'zotheka kuti zinthu zisinthe?

Pofuna kukonza zinthu pa dziko, ndi mabvuto kwambiri, pamene dola ukunkirankira. Zotsatira kupitiriza zinthu adzakhala kulimbikitsa. Chinthu chokha chimene m'njira inayake kukuza chochitika - ndi kukwera mtengo kwa mafuta osachepera mpaka chandamale cha $ 100 pa mbiya. Ngakhale US wakhala akufunafuna mwakhama migodi ya mafuta, ndi mayiko OPEC simukugwirizana kuchepetsa voliyumu ya katundu mafuta msika lonse, palibe kusintha. mutu wa zikuchitika akhoza pang'ono okha kusalaza vutoli, ndipo si yofunikira kuti atsogolere miyoyo ya anthu pa za mlingo zoweta zachuma.

Zinthu zimene poyamba ndikuwopa ndikuganiza, lero kuitenga mopepuka. Ndipo vuto onse dola likutuluka. Kafukufuku ku mbali yogwira ukuyenda America kale kulola kupewa zinthu kumene Maphunzirowa zizigwirizana rubles 200 pa 1 dola US. Mpaka mtengo wa ndalama kupita molimba mtima kuti chilemba cha 100 rubles kwa dola imodzi, ndi anthu a amaona zinthu mopepuka. Kumvetsa America ndi kulemera kwake bwino, makamaka ponso mwakhama zizindikiro zazikulu chuma zinachititsa kuti maganizo lonse, zilibe kanthu. Ndipo kodi kuwuka kwa dollar mu mapeto - chinsinsi.